Sunday night I wrote a post about the political lay of the land after this weekend. It was lined up for tonight. It essentially said Obama must be considered the favorite in the General. Axelrod is overseeing a brutal and effective campaign and with his help the GOP is proving to be inept and repellant. Yet it is still too early to know how things will play out.
But I only have so many variations on that theme in me. I wrongly assumed that not having a dog in the hunt would be liberating as a blogger. Then the field narrowed to two bridge trolls, a Sears mannequin, and a man with consistency and ideas (many of which I do not agree with) but who has no chance whatsoever. Still, interesting things are always brewing even if our leading actors are 3rd rate.
Axelrod, who never much impressed me in 2008, is schooling Republicans. It’s a sight to behold. The tactics are pure Alinsky and the GOP, once masters of the brutal campaign, has yet to figure out a way to defend against this, much less go on the offensive. Alinsky tactics are amoral, duplicitous, hypocritical, and in the main, evil, but they are effective since they are perfectly suited for the age of Facebook. It’s not far afield to say Alinsky presaged Twitter and Facebook. The man would have loved both.
Further, if Santorum and Gingrich stay in the race much past Tuesday it’s fair to say they are all but paid employees of David Axelrod. The GOP establishment’s inability drag these two men off the stage and chuck them onto a trash heap is not only harming their only viable choice, it’s also setting up the destruction of the Republican party. That is not an overstatement. The Santorum wing of the GOP is behaving like a regional rump party. They keep it up and it will become a regional rump party. This might be cause for celebration if the party left standing were led by upright, moral people. It’s not. Under Obama, amoral deviance is the norm. News emerging of Holder’s defense of extra judicial killings of American citizens while everyone is frothing over the Limbaugh/Fluke story is not a coincidence. No, I don’t see an evil, specific plan in the Obama campaign when gifts like Limbaugh’s idiocy burst forth. I’m not Alex Jones. But luck is the residue of design. Cue the conversation. Ensure it cannot be avoided. Allow the morons to be morons. Choose ideal moments to interject…and pick up the phone.
Whether or not Romney can figure out a way to combat the layers of attacks emanating from Chicago remains to be seen. I doubt he will without outside help. As willing as he will be to go negative, his campaign will remain straight forward. He’ll be a conventional war general in an asymmetrical war. He shows little sign he has the imagination to adjust. The people surrounding him show less. (What was that Ford Field fiasco? Who is that stupid on a major campaign?)
So what could upset the Obama narrative? Here’s something. It’s being reported that Israel has already decided to attack Iran. I hope this doesn’t surprise anyone. It shouldn’t. Of course, they’ve decided already. The question is when? I’m skipping the hellish implications of such an attack as discussions of them are better suited for other writers. Note I said an attack would upset Obama’s narrative, not that it would harm Obama’s re-election chances. In fact, it might help them. If we find ourselves embroiled in a regional conflict in September it will be very hard for many voters to change horses. But what if the attack comes in April and the spike in oil that will occur creates chaos here? Oil shock, add near immediate and substantial food inflation, which leads to hoarding…Crazy scenario? It’s not even in the vicinity of crazy. It’s plausible. And remember: Romney’s entire narrative is “I’m the fixer.” 3 or 4 months of economic dislocation and high anxiety? Short attention span Americans will be perfectly happy to switch horses.
Iran is one example of a brown swan. There are others.
- We’re lied to so often about inflation a breaking point is bound to happen, a moment when the lie is so far from day to day reality it explodes into open disgust. I’ll even guess right now that the disgust would take the form of an “on the exchange floor” rant by some uncontrolled CNBC talker that goes viral and confirms what everyone already sees all the time: Food prices are going up, up, up.
- And as always: Gas prices. So far the media has helped Obama get through our current spike up. This is doable for a simple reason. Most of the nation has yet to see the number “4″ at the gas pump. 4 is a psychological break point. When everyone is paying 4 or more dollars for a gallon things will change.
For now this election is going perfectly for Obama. It’s hard to see how that continues. If it does, I’ll be bored stiff.