Salena Zito’s latest piece backs up a hunch I felt emerging in tandem with Marco Rubio’s not so subtle audition last week. Romney is quietly attempting to out flank Obama’s demographic strategy with one of his own.
My mistake about Rubio has been the assumption that he’s in the running for Veep because he’ll bring enough Hispanic voters to the GOP to make the difference. He might. But that’s not the point of a Romney/Rubio ticket. Counter intuitively, Rubio next to Romney will appeal to working class whites. I bet that’s Romney’s bet. It’s a double shot of optimism / competence. Rubio presents as moderate and fresh. Romney’s entire campaign is keyed on his ability to turn things around, with a refrain of optimism. These two elements get moderates to the polls the same way intoning about the evils of big government get conservatives worked up.
Rubio isn’t meant to add more bodies to Romney’s total, he’s meant to augment his narrative. The broad strokes of Rubio’s story fit perfectly. Immigrant, escaped a tyrant, parents worked hard so their children could realize the American dream. It’s boilerplate…and relentlessly appealing in this country. The queasiness about Romney’s wealth will go down a notch whenever Rubio tells his story.
“Auditioning” Rubio in Pennsylvania, where Hispanics won’t make the difference, was not random. His job is to telegraph to Reagan Democrats that Romney/Rubio are a team…that is on your team. Frankly, upon seeing them together my immediate flash was of Clinton/Gore early on.
From the Zito piece:
Opfar, 31, is a safety inspector at Bailey Mine….He said he likes what he hears from Romney, doesn’t think Romney is at all like the descriptions in most press accounts… ”He talks about what is best for the region and what is best for the country, growing our economy and creating jobs….That’s all I need to hear.” Emphasis is very much mine to make another point. The attempt to package Romney as a far right nut job is not going to fly.
Another telling element:
Most of the media coverage of the Fleetman event centered on whether Romney will pick U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio as his running mate after the Florida freshman joined him for a town-hall meeting in nearby Aston….The real story, however, was the large number of women attending the event and the crowd’s enthusiasm…
The gender gap is being over played. There will be one. There usually is. It will shrink before election day. Working/middle class white women will vote on the economy just like their male counterparts. The man who wins this group in total probably wins the election.
“Romney/Rubio” will force Obama to work for Pennsylvania, can win Ohio, and Rubio may swing Florida. That means every voter, dead or alive, in North Carolina and Colorado will be dragged by the hair to the polls by both sides. Sometimes twice.
Prediction: Obama/Axelrod will realize they are missing the boat with attacks on Romney’s alleged rightwingery and proven wealth. They’ll begin to attack his true strengths. Look for swift boat style stories to emerge about the Salt Lake City Olympics. Look for trashing of Romney’s record as governor. I won’t blame Axelrod/Obama for this. Though I’m sure to write about it when it begins. This is how the game is played.Kerry’s the idiot who did not respond to Rove’s assault for three weeks. All Rove did was figure out how to deflate him. That was his job. And if Dukakis didn’t know Willie Horton was coming, he’s a fool.
I’ve figured out what’s been bugging me about Obama’s campaign so far. It’s a good campaign. It’s just the wrong one. Obama’s team doesn’t yet understand the other side’s true strengths. In a backhanded way President Carter conveyed Obama’s central problem when he said this week “I’d rather have a Democrat but I would be comfortable. (with Romney as President) I think Romney has shown in the past, in his previous years as a moderate or progressive, that he was fairly competent as a governor and also running the Olympics,”
He may not have meant to but Carter boiled Obama’s missing campaign strategy succinctly. No one fears a Romney presidency as many did a McCain/Palin term. No one gives a hoot that Romney has flip flopped. They all do. Those who distrust Romney’s wealth are already voting for Obama. People care about who can get the job done. Obama needs to attack Romney’s strengths, not harp on his weaknesses. And Axelrod needs to access his inner Atwater/Rove. Both men assaulted opponents strengths…and won.
(Mr. Axelrod, it may seem strange getting advice from this blog but please note….I accept paypal…and money from overseas…)
Romney/Rubio has appeal. And it’s the kind of appeal that will be very appealing in a year like 2012. I’ll be surprised if Romney goes another direction.
The more Candidate Romney looks like a man who knows what the hell he’s doing, the more voters will begin to think that President Romney will also know what the hell he’s doing. Based on what I’m hearing here in Michigan– and I live in a liberal-ish part of the state– I’d say Romney has a chance of winning. The same people who voted for Governor Snyder in 2010 are voting for Romney.
I think Michigan is in play. Though it’s uphill for M.R. Interested in your take from Michigan as things unfold. It’s funny, a friend in L.A. said “he’s thinking about voting for Romney” the other day…and this is not a guy who votes GOP…ever… I’m not even thinking about it, 3rd party for me…So it was startling to hear this person say what he said out loud.
The problem, of course, is that if President Obama ™ attacks Romney’s competence and accomplishments, it will only serve to accentuate his own deficiencies.
propertius, I hope you’re right, that come November 1st, TehOne is limping and by Nov. 8th he will be as lame as a president can be.
“President Obama ™ ” is hilarious.
Well, he is the ultimate political “product” so I thought he ought to be trademarked. I’ve been using that for awhile on various blogs. I’m just trying to think of a catchy slogan. I was hoping Axelrove would stick with “Win the future” because the comic possibilities of “WTF” are just endless. “Forward” is just too dry. Perhaps (and I’m showing my age) it could be changed to “Forward! Into the past!” (pace Firesign Theater).
Maybe something along the lines of: “He’s an energy drink *and* a floorwax – he’s two Presidents in one!”
Then again, maybe I’ve been watching too much “Mad Men”.
And one deficiency Team Obama has is stealing others ideas. Case in point — guess which state’s motto is FORWARD? [hint: It will be in big play this May/June, and the results of its recall election will determine which way it will go in Nov.]
Yes indeed, it’s http://www.statesymbolsusa.org/Wisconsin/state-motto.html
Silly me! How could I have missed it!
“He’s a Messiah and a golf pro – he’s two Presidents in one!!
Very interesting piece, JWS. Like the fresh and unconventional take on a R&R ticket. An added factor, Rubio has been burnishing his foreign policy creds and sounds credible on the subject.
Yes, that speech was part of the ‘Rubio roll out…’
This is a referendum election. It is all about “Are you better off than you were four years ago.” A show of competency and optimism might be all Romney needs because Obama is underwater. The only way Obama wins is if he convinces people that Romney would be worse.
Yep.
But the given, and it’s a position of strength, is this is Obama’s to win or lose. You and I agree he’s a failure as President, but the common belief about him is less harsh. And the thing is, Barack Obama is not Gerald Ford or Jimmy Carter or Papa Bush, he’s more a Reagan or Bill Clinton or Dubya Bush: he came in as the cool kid in class, and that creates a potent staying power.
Obama’s ability to convince people that Romney would be worse will depend on Obama’s cool factor, whether or not his ability to seduce is still strong enough. That’s what Obama’s dog jokes were about at the Correspondent’s Dinner. If Obama still has It, he just took control of the dog meme; if he’s lost It, it’s owned by his opposition. The strategy is based on little more than high school social structure, which makes sense because that’s what American culture has become. If the Obama clique is still perceived cool enough, desirable enough, enviable enough to be believed and followed no matter what they say, their ridicule and denigration of Romney/Whomever and their tricks to create divisive narratives will work.
Reagan’s worked till the end; that’s why there’s an airport in DC named after him. Dubya’s worked until Katrina. Clinton’s worked until the new cool kid, Obama, out-cooled him.
Romney’s not cool, he never has been. He’s got something but it’s not cool. Rubio’s got cool and it’s fresher and more youthful than Obama’s, but from what I’ve seen he’s not in full enough command of it yet, and also you can’t have the VP candidate running against a sitting President. It makes the opposition Presidential candidate look weak. The only way I see it working is if Rubio is cast as Romney’s son; Romney as the wiser experienced successful voice of calm and reason, and Rubio as a good looking fresh cool next in line. But, bottom line, to deny him a second term, Obama’s cool has to be broken through.
I’m sure the Romney campaign is aware of the value of the father-son icon, especially when playing off the Gilligan-Skipper icon of obama-Biden.
obama came in promising pie-in-the-sky. What matter is not the absolute state of affairs four years after, so much as the relative gap between promise & delivery. If you’re perceived as not knowing what you’re doing, trying to play ‘cool’ makes you come off as a joke.
Zal, my first flight was from JFK to National. I was seven. I refuse to call National anything other than that.
I had a long phone conversation yesterday with my youngest adult child who is about to graduate college. SHE brought up Romney. She said he is like the parent who fixes things and straightens out messes. HE would would explain what went wrong, how to fix it and not just keep bitching and and sniping at you. If a twenty-two year old young woman has picked up on the fundamental differences in the personalities and character of these men currently running for President, Obama is in a world of hurt.
The youngest usually is drawn to security in a father figure and often chooses badly and gets disappointment. I think it’s because fathers often bond with the first born in a way the younger ones misunderstand and long to have.
But I’m curious, Lulu, do you have the sense that your daughter wants to vote for this kind of candidate? That age, that demographic, sure wanted the Obama type in ’08 and now that they’re older 20s and 30s, I’ve wondered what the new crop of younger to mid 20-somethings is drawn to today. Everything changes so fast today, it seems 10 years is a generational divide.
She said he is like the parent who fixes things and straightens out messes. HE would would explain what went wrong, how to fix it and not just keep bitching and and sniping at you.
We had that with Hillary in post-Bush 2008 except she wasn’t “like the parent” she was/is. Unfortunately, the kids didn’t want the mess cleaned up.
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LuLu, your daughter got it exactly right. Actually, Romney reminds me of my dear, departed father. Calm, square, and reassuring, decidedly un-cool, which probably describes most of our fathers..
America is too far gone for a hip hop President. The demographics of his voters, will likely reflect the meaningless class wars he has started, and may not be enough to carry the day.
Despite the shrinkage of the non minority middle class, most Americans still identify that way, he ignores them at his peril.
Had to laugh at the line O working to win Pennsylvania – he doesn’t work just sends out his minions to do the heavy lifting while he golfs and parties.
Posting this late yesterday -
If the Clintons think that by campaigning for The Won now that he will help them in 2016, the joke’s on them because he has no loyalty to anybody but himself and he will throw them again and again under the bus. He must realize on some level that Hilary is smarter and would be a better leader then he, and he could never ever allow her that honor of being president after his extremely weak performance. And she can talk without a teleprompter.
Dog people:
a snap from one of my walks esp for you:
http://losangelesgd.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/3-dogsarlington-heights/
I love dog!
That makes me so happy.
Love their little scruffy faces!
It’s an Obama tailgate party!
OFA finally settles on a slogan: “Forward.”
I honestly think that’s about the best they could’ve done.
“Forward” reminds me of the movie “Short Circuit”. It’s the first command that Stephanie figures out that the robot can understand.
Tam, I commented on this up-thread; should have scrolled down first. I think they’re taking a gamble assuming that the recall election in WI will go Dem. Everyone here is saying it will determine the direction for POTUS in Nov. I tend to agree. However, despite what is being seen in the media, Walker has strong support in the rest of the state outside of Madison and WI. If Milwaukee Mayor Barrett is the Dem nominee, and its looking more the case, then Walker just has to focus on Barrett’s inability to get jobs to Milwaukee, which currently has one of the highest unemployment rates of all cities nationwide and an even growing number for AAs. Barrett has done nothing to address this and it was pointed out during his mayoral campaign that he has outsourced city contracts to out-of-state firms, even Chicago. Governor just start addressing these points this weekend. Ads will be forthcoming.
Thanks John, the furry, un-hip crowd always makes my day !
Rascal, I don’t get the Clintons coming to the rescue part at all, unless Hill is angling for V.P. and O has promised to be stricken with a deadly disease by Feb ’13.
I think a lot of Americans are Over the O’s, the vacays, golf, and swanky parties are so over the top, as to be reminders of a better era, when the rest of us could at least afford to attend a class reunion or go on a camping trip once in a while. They are in-your-face unseemly, and we don’t like getting our noses rubbed in it, especially when we’re paying for it.
For most, the party is over and the hangover has set in, along with the regrets. The question is whether those who have woken up to their disillusionment will yearn for the hair of the dog. I don’t think so. I think the majority who have left the party, the indies, are dying for someone to clean up the detritus the party left behind. Romney promises this. Obama promises more of the party. Rubio as VP is a fun guy who has that air of responsibility — he’s fresh, hipper, and yet solid. He’s the person that Obama promised the voters he’d be.
Cuban Americans are an amazing success story in Florida.They have a superior work ethic, and are prominent in every profession and business imagineable.
“Foreward” ? that’s it ? ..I know, how about ‘Forewarned” ? Now that’s keeping it Real.
Oo, oo, I know. How ’bout “Fore!!!!!!!!”?