Dan Sh1138 linked this piece from American Thinker in the previous thread. It’s broad (not that I’m one to judge) in its assessment of Obama’s basic character flaw, hubris, and you’ll find no argument from this blogger. The writer, J.R. Dunn, goes on to claim that Mr. Arrogance will be undone by his core flaw just in time to lose the upcoming election.
“For close to four years, I’ve been arguing that Obama’s actions as president — actions taken in defiance of law; of American tradition; of the realities of current condition; and, not the least, of the American people — would, in his final months, take him down.”
I’m a man who is cocky and cautious by turns with my own predictions. Dunn’s prediction needles me toward my more cautious nature. This isn’t to say that Obama’s arrogance and the downstream scandals his narcissism has birthed won’t ever lay him low. They will. Second terms scandals have upended every President who has gotten one for the past 40 years, including Johnson if one counts Vietnam as a scandal. One has to go back to Ike to find a reasonably clean second term. He defeated Hitler so even if there was a scandal he would have received a pass. The Obama scandals and misdirection, from Fast And Furious to the inherently anti-American Obamacare will unravel his legacy. I just don’t know when.
Fast and Furious is ramping up about a month later than I thought it would. But Republicans don’t slouch when it comes to dropping the anvil once they decide to. I suspect some of the higher-ups had to buy into Romney as a proper flag carrier, and now they have. He ain’t Reagan but he’s better than another Obama term. Clinton was malleable in term 2. He got hammered but he also played with the GOP on a few E-ticket rides and it probably saved him. Once in power Obama demonstrated a decided lack of self-control when it comes to demonizing. That gets old and creates resentments that don’t fade. Republican power players heard Obama’s slogan “We Can’t Wait” and felt it apt to their situation. Romney will do, thank you very much. Drop the anvil.
Fast and Furious is the lynchpin scandal. It’s easy to read. The carnage is real. Holder is unsympathetic and tied to Obama in the public mind. Plus, he’s withholding evidence. This is always a bad thing to do, even when necessary. Not because withholding upsets people. It really only upsets lifers in Congress. What hurts politically is what comes next. The step after withholding and covering up is always a whistle-blower seated before a congressional committee under oath. Who will the historical asterisk be this time around? Don’t know. But there will be one. Jane or John Historical Footnote tie together the narrative. So and so knew what was going on…so and so spoke to the President and conveyed to me….we tried to warn the President but the White House said he was golfing….she had this blue dress.…there is this recording device in the office and… The exact wording isn’t relevant. Nor, by this point, will a direct link to Obama matter. By then the fecund stink of the entire affair will be omnipresent. Now all this is survivable politically except for two things: Obama sold himself as transformative and with Fast and Furious there are dead bodies. Dead American bodies. Both dynamics play off each other and the result is disgust. Yes, Holder will play up race, no it won’t matter. In fact, it will hurt his cause.
The assorted other scandals are interesting, adjunct B-plots. Lesser tales that support the general theme.
The question for us in the peanut gallery is: When does the trap door get released? Scandals take time, which is why second terms are when they emerge. Seeds are sown early that bloom later. If the GOP expects Fast and Furious to demolish Obama before November they’d better get cracking. If they merely want to hobble him in a second term their pace so far is about right. Dunn is convinced Obama will be undone by scandal soon. I’m not. Obama is masterful at manipulating his story. It is coming undone. But will it all evaporate for him by this Fall? I have my doubts.
There are brown swans aplenty though. Trouble is forever brewing in Europe. And Bibi won’t behave. Either situation may well cause Obama’s peeps unending grief before Issa gets it together. Europe alone could sink Barry’s slow but steady economic growth meme over a single weekend, and make the GOP convention one long power point presentation on what to avoid. With a big speech from Mr. Economic Competence to wrap the show up.
The race is still bouncing around 50/50. Give a slight incumbent edge to Obama. At some point Obama’s arrogance will sink him. This type of story always ends the same way. But is this tale a two act evening of theater or an exhausting five act opera? We shall see.