Dan Sh1138 linked this piece from American Thinker in the previous thread. It’s broad (not that I’m one to judge) in its assessment of Obama’s basic character flaw, hubris, and you’ll find no argument from this blogger. The writer, J.R. Dunn, goes on to claim that Mr. Arrogance will be undone by his core flaw just in time to lose the upcoming election.
“For close to four years, I’ve been arguing that Obama’s actions as president — actions taken in defiance of law; of American tradition; of the realities of current condition; and, not the least, of the American people — would, in his final months, take him down.”
I’m a man who is cocky and cautious by turns with my own predictions. Dunn’s prediction needles me toward my more cautious nature. This isn’t to say that Obama’s arrogance and the downstream scandals his narcissism has birthed won’t ever lay him low. They will. Second terms scandals have upended every President who has gotten one for the past 40 years, including Johnson if one counts Vietnam as a scandal. One has to go back to Ike to find a reasonably clean second term. He defeated Hitler so even if there was a scandal he would have received a pass. The Obama scandals and misdirection, from Fast And Furious to the inherently anti-American Obamacare will unravel his legacy. I just don’t know when.
Fast and Furious is ramping up about a month later than I thought it would. But Republicans don’t slouch when it comes to dropping the anvil once they decide to. I suspect some of the higher-ups had to buy into Romney as a proper flag carrier, and now they have. He ain’t Reagan but he’s better than another Obama term. Clinton was malleable in term 2. He got hammered but he also played with the GOP on a few E-ticket rides and it probably saved him. Once in power Obama demonstrated a decided lack of self-control when it comes to demonizing. That gets old and creates resentments that don’t fade. Republican power players heard Obama’s slogan “We Can’t Wait” and felt it apt to their situation. Romney will do, thank you very much. Drop the anvil.
Fast and Furious is the lynchpin scandal. It’s easy to read. The carnage is real. Holder is unsympathetic and tied to Obama in the public mind. Plus, he’s withholding evidence. This is always a bad thing to do, even when necessary. Not because withholding upsets people. It really only upsets lifers in Congress. What hurts politically is what comes next. The step after withholding and covering up is always a whistle-blower seated before a congressional committee under oath. Who will the historical asterisk be this time around? Don’t know. But there will be one. Jane or John Historical Footnote tie together the narrative. So and so knew what was going on…so and so spoke to the President and conveyed to me….we tried to warn the President but the White House said he was golfing….she had this blue dress.…there is this recording device in the office and… The exact wording isn’t relevant. Nor, by this point, will a direct link to Obama matter. By then the fecund stink of the entire affair will be omnipresent. Now all this is survivable politically except for two things: Obama sold himself as transformative and with Fast and Furious there are dead bodies. Dead American bodies. Both dynamics play off each other and the result is disgust. Yes, Holder will play up race, no it won’t matter. In fact, it will hurt his cause.
The assorted other scandals are interesting, adjunct B-plots. Lesser tales that support the general theme.
The question for us in the peanut gallery is: When does the trap door get released? Scandals take time, which is why second terms are when they emerge. Seeds are sown early that bloom later. If the GOP expects Fast and Furious to demolish Obama before November they’d better get cracking. If they merely want to hobble him in a second term their pace so far is about right. Dunn is convinced Obama will be undone by scandal soon. I’m not. Obama is masterful at manipulating his story. It is coming undone. But will it all evaporate for him by this Fall? I have my doubts.
There are brown swans aplenty though. Trouble is forever brewing in Europe. And Bibi won’t behave. Either situation may well cause Obama’s peeps unending grief before Issa gets it together. Europe alone could sink Barry’s slow but steady economic growth meme over a single weekend, and make the GOP convention one long power point presentation on what to avoid. With a big speech from Mr. Economic Competence to wrap the show up.
The race is still bouncing around 50/50. Give a slight incumbent edge to Obama. At some point Obama’s arrogance will sink him. This type of story always ends the same way. But is this tale a two act evening of theater or an exhausting five act opera? We shall see.
The race is still bouncing around 50/50.
It’s a turtle race. Obama is underwater and I don’t see that changing much. Romney on the other hand is still new. People haven’t made up their minds about him yet.
At this point in 1992 Bill Clinton was running third in some polls.
Good point, myiq.
Robama vs Obomney…what an exciting choi…….zzzzzzzz
Haha! Good one!
The Republicans are poking Obama with a stick. The biggest mistake of his political career was loosing the House in 2010. Ramming Obamacare through, refusing to share campaign funds with incumbents who were in trouble because they voted for his legislative mess and backed him in 2008, and presuming that he would have a blind compliant Congress all the way through is first term to ignore his smash and grab kleptocracy from Chicago is central to understanding his ignorance of history and yes, his hubris.
Obama’s statements during 2008 and his later pleading with Republicans to work with him came from his rather shallow understanding of national Republicans. His sole political experience was in Illinois where Democrats and Republicans take turns stealing from the taxpayers. “I won” to Obama means that it is his and his team of crooks turn to run some scams and grab some cash and dole out some favors to “his people”. The Republicans were supposed to roll over and let him because as he said “I won”. Obama also seems to think he is owed a second term. Hubris is just an old fashioned term for personality disorder.
“Obama also seems to think he is owed a second term. Hubris is just an old fashioned term for personality disorder.”
Astute insight, Lulu.
Obama must be the only president, at least in modern US history, who truly believes HE has bestowed an honor on the American people by being POTUS.
Second terms are like respect, both should be earned. What should have been clear from the start, was O’s deceptive and divisive character..
I have always thought of Romney as a semi-animated Ken doll, but it’s hard to see him as deeply corrupt, or ignorant of economics. Maybe that will have to suffice, for now.
Frankly, I hope this next election is the last one for both Dems and R’s, neither party represents Anything even remotely like the true nature of the U.S. and many of it’s citizens, at this point in time.
I hope everyone liked the article, you can just call me Dan its easier to type.
John, I don’t think its going to be about dropping an anvil. Obama proved he was pretty deft at dodging falling pianos during the primaries… The Rev. Wright thing being a good example of how a pretty speech and air cover from the media allowed him to sidestep at the last minute.
I think that in 2008, pretty oratory was part spectacle and part imagined promise of the greatness that would follow. In 2011, pretty oratory is just the idiot wind and I think people are over it, after 3 years of it even the media has a hard time selling the “Obama just gave a great speech about…” meme
I think there seems to be a growing perception that A) Barry really isn’t the one after all and B) Barry is really just another politician who talks out of both sides of his mouth like all the rest.
The one consisent thing that Barry does is make it all about him and when the real punching starts during the campaign Romney can capitalize on that, because I don’t think you need an anvil but rather, in the Greek tragedy sense, you just need a couple dozen little cracks to start appearing in the feet of clay.
Like the made up girlfriends, like the comment to Russian ambassador, like Fast and Furious, like Solyndra, like Obamacare, like Trayvon Martin, like Bill Ayers, like academic records, like unemployment numbers, etc.
Obama can try to run away from his record, but he can’t run away from his brand. Everyone else can though, or at the very least a majority.
Dan, I can tell you as a Boomer, he has lost the Senior’s vote, which he never really had in the first place, but still…he should have at least made an effort. While some of us may still have a Stones or Dead T shirt hanging around, we were always patriotic, even though anti war. We are still the largest voting bloc.. When Nixon coined the term ‘silent majority’ he could never have predicted that it would now apply to us, but it does, at least to some extent.
I cannot count the number of friends who are very worried about their adult children’s future, particularly as it applies to the grandchildren. Most all of them place much of the blame on O and Bush 43, fairly or not, it will influence their vote, and even the die hard Dems are in revolt. Just because we’re not in the streets anymore, we have not disappeared, and we will show up on Election Day by the millions. O can take that promise to the Banks he loves so much..Politicians who remain in the O camp are also far from safe.
My immediate ‘crowd’ is composed of almost all NY’ers, who still identify as such, when you’ve lost them, it’s a pretty Big Deal.
sophie, I’d love to believe what you’re saying. But, if it’s true, how do you explain Obama’s poll numbers? He has an amazingly high approval rating from registered Dems, and those numbers have to include the elderly, Boomers, etc. Are people just lying to pollsters? If so, why? Would be interested in your take.
I thought that after Obama won in 2008, he would not seek a second term. His pattern of not staying in a job for more than a few years was effective in obscuring that fact that he really never did any work or accomplished anything. I guess that the socialized sociopath/con-artist has an “inborn” sense that moving on means survival. If he had followed his usual pattern and not sought a second term, he would have “escaped” from a poor presidency with “historic” and “did the best that he could” as the legacy. If he wins in 2012, he will solidify his legacy as one of the worst Presidents. If he is defeated, the exposure of the “real” Obama will have the same result.
Wow SHV, did you really think that? His ego and hubris wouldn’t allow him to walk away from a second-term. Besides he learns to have AF-1 and other perks of the POTUS office, and was never going to give them up until compelled to.
Erratum: “Besides he LOVES to have AF-1….”
I keep reading that it is Mrs. Obama and Jarrett that want the second term for the post presidential earnings potential. It is like 60% more or something like that. I do not think he cares much. The women want to cash in and that sounds right to me. I think he is a slacker and is set, but the ladies want more.
Judging by the recent absence of many of the former regulars here, it appears that Obama may have succeeded in dividing even this relatively small ‘community’. I find that very odd given that the formerly-advertised slogan of this blog was “We knew Obama was a fraud before it was cool.” Obama’s still a fraud…so what’s changed? Is it because he’s been so divisive, sparking knock-dead arguments here? Let’s see, he’s already done: haves vs. have-nots; women vs. GOP; gays vs. GOP; blacks vs. whites (and “white Hispanics”); progressives vs. moderates: did I miss any?
Burnout. I have to take a few days off periodically because I get so disgusted I do not want to think about it. I think some of the prior regular and copious posters may be facing some outrage fatigue.
NES — don’t forget the wonders of Word Press. It took me a few weeks to finally get whatever new changes they had to work, so I just lurked. Might be a factor for others. Uppity Woman has noticed same observation.
BTW, tomorrow is WI’s primary. Gov Walker will be recalled but who will run against him? I thought that Kathleen Falk was the Hillary supporter, knew Barrett was/is the Obama one; double-checked and I was right. If Barrett wins he will have swung in at the last moment when the Hillary supporter was campaigning for months and taking the brunt of the flak. Don’t believe that because of her union support that she can’t beat Walker. Any Dem will be cast as the uber-union supporter, etc. Will update results on Wednesday.
I can’t log onto wordpress anymore. I have a devastating article written on obama’s drone campaign, but can’t post the goddamn thing.
Tamer, how tragic. You must rescue your blue gravatar.
A post on drones sounds like meaty food for thought. Look forward to reading it later today.
Yep NES, not divided just sick of the whole thing. Both sides still suck and it’s become who do you hate more. We’ve been bitching about barry for almost 6 years now. Hopefully we’ll only have to complain about him for a few more months.
NES, I have noticed the absences as well, even that of my favorite sparring partner..Maybe it’s the Spring weather, in some areas, it’s time to clean up and plant.. I will be doing that soon, as we will go North for the Summer.If not that, maybe she had an epiphany and realized she’s in O’s camp, at least on most issues, as some here kept trying to tell her.
To answer your first question up thread, I have no intimate knowledge of how people respond to polls, but some may answer “obama’ based on their fear of the Race card, or because he’s so overexposed, he has immediate name recognition. Job approval numbers are more telling, imo.
What I do understand somewhat, is the culture in which I and my peers grew up. Sort of the ‘Age of Aquarius meets the Great Society meets SuperFly ” Needless to say, Life happens, and most of us got over it While losing most of our savings, and retirement accounts and trying to help fund college for the grandchildren was not the original plan, we are a resilient bunch, our Depression and War era parents saw to that.
Dare I say that Obama was a fraud, and a fad, and some fads get stale quicker than others ?.Even tie dye will outlast O, or at least, stage a comeback at some point.
I think this blog represents the changing political climate. John still writes killer pieces, that seem to reflect that change. If there is one thing true radicals lack, it is patience.
” His ego and hubris wouldn’t allow him to walk away from a second-term.”
*********
Rhamnusia wins again!!!! On the other hand, Obama may have wanted to not run but the people who selected him to be President in ’07 wouldn’t allow it. A question that I asked during the Dem primary is “what happens when a sociopath is backed into a corner?” The aggressive Repub. campaign and perhaps a change in the corporate media’s treatment of Obama may answer the question. I don’t think that I will like the answer.
NES – one of my favorites BTW,
I also noticed some of the regulars are gone and miss them. As for Zero and Willard, there is nothing compelling in this race for me. They’re both owned by the same people. We’re screwed either way. I won’t vote for either and may only vote on a local level.
Because my Rep – DeFazio – voted for crapcare I won’t support him, but I won’t vote for the Repub either. Blech. As Uppity always says “Death by fire or Death by drowning.” She’s right.
Hiya Senneth. Good to see you..
That was me up above. Didn’t realize my information had gone…
Well Sophie, on 26th and 3rd I’m noticing that the Dems are kind of falling into two camps
1. “Shit, Obama aint who I thought he was gonna be and I dont want to talk about it”
2. “Obama is everything I wanted him to be and more and I cant say enough good things about him”
I’d say it’s probably a 25%/75% split.
I walked through the May Day “protest” in Madison Square park last week and I didn’t see any real branded presence for Obama, I saw a lot of scenesters, malcontents and older counter culture intellectuals doing the normal counter culture thing, no cohesion or cohesive message. Most of the message from young people seemed to be either “bailout my student loans like you bailed out wall street” or “99%” which in my mind is basically that they want to get in on the scene and the whole protest vibe so they can tell their kids one day that they did it.. (it doesn’t have to BE the 60s it just has to FEEL like the 60s) but in my opinion nothing that those with large quantities of lawyers, guns and money need to worry about.
My guess is that the “Occupy Summer” will be astroturfed by OFA not in order to gain support among the young and/or disillussioned and bring them back to Brand Obama, but give them parks and parades to play around in and deflect attention from the fact that Obama really only has managed to continue screwing them. The more time they spend bitching about “Wall Street” as an undefinable/imagined entity, the less time they will have thinking about how Brand Obama really has done Sweet FA for the last 3 years. In other words, Occupy really is just the Orwellian concept of Two Minutes Hate made real, and don’t worry Oceania, we’ve always been at war with Eurasia and EastAsia.
Like I said, I believe Obama really can only deflect from his record of accomplishments, continue to claim credit for killing Bin Laden, use scare tactics against Repubs and Tea Party and say “I will suck less than Romney” but none of that really leads up to a cohesive narrative for his brand, and I cant help but believe his brand will continue to dimminish over the next 6 months.He’s already overexposed and the media is starting to show signs of Obama fatigue, but I don’t think he can stop campaigning, either logistically or due to his narcissistic personality.
I don’t think any one anvil will sink him, but a bunch of little cracks in the brand over the course of time will make that critical 5% of the popular vote say “you know what, Romney is an acceptable alternative”
ROMNEY 2012
An Acceptable Alternative
Also. Mormon.
Not the best campaign slogan, but I believe Brand Obama must be repudiated for the left to kick the Kool Aid and come back strong in 2016 with hopefully Clinton.
Dan, I think this just might be one of the cracks …
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/05/06/why-can-t-obama-bring-wall-street-to-justice.html
It is embarassing for Biden, but I think this will slide off Obama.
As far as replacing the VP, I thing the media ran this ideaup the flagpole to see if the public would bite but I didn’t get the impression anyone was interested (least of all Hillary Clinton).
A different VP candidate would allow Barry to have that person take the focus off of his record for a month or so, but as we saw with McCain/Palin, relying on a VP candidate to re-energize your campaign might not be the best tactic.
Besides, why replace a guy who says awesome stuff like this:
” Axelrod really wanted me to do this on teleprompter — but I told him I’m much better when I wing it. I know these evenings run long, so I’m going to be brief. Talk about the audacity of hope. President Obama does send his greetings, though. He can’t be here tonight — because he’s busy getting ready for Easter. He thinks it’s about him.” –Joe Biden at 2009 Gridiron Dinner
Dan, at 26 and Third, I would expect nothing less, Especially if they want to avoid a crowd massacre. My old 70′s West neighborhood crowd, is probably much the same. But we have relocated to Florida, where they have rediscovered their courage, probably due to losing their money or in some cases, their marbles.
I see less enthusiasm for TehOne here (where I work) in chicago and where I live. I say this based on the lack of ferocious responses I receive when I offer less-than-positive comments about him in conversation. In fact, sometimes I get a “yes but…” reply that wasn’t happening even a year ago. So perhaps some koolaid guzzlers are seeing things a bit more realistically these days.
I read and found of interest (and commented on somewhere last week) in this AT essay, is that there is a scandal brewing r/t Biden. http://freebeacon.com/dreamworks-nightmare/
My thought was “are they setting Biden up to be replaced on the ticket in order to bolster re-election for TehOne”. I don’t know. But with the polls that I heard about on radio this morning (CBW news) saying there is a “virtual Obama/Romney tie”, the committee to re-elect has to be somewhat worried. And they are looking for some reassurance and strength.
Leslie, I’m also seeing less enthusiasm for Obama where I work (and there was lots of it in 2008). Folks are feeling let down, but they are still going to vote for him, just quietly. I have to say, there really is no where else to go. The right wing of the Blogosphere, Twitter, and cable news is vile and isn’t doing anything that could be misinterpreted as trying to attract independents. In fact, it seems they are trying to force people into Obama’s arms.
I agree with Senneth: They’re both owned by the same people. We’re screwed either way. I’m looking at third party for the top slot and I’ll pick and choose my way through the down-ticket races.
Watch Obama. He has the swagger and attitude of someone who knows that the game will always be rigged in his favor. It has been, and it will be. That’s why he doesn’t have to do any real work, just posture. He didn’t care that he looked like an empty incompetent in 2010- He knew that the cleanup and brushup crew would be arriving shortly. Now that it has become time again to care, all forces within our view are gathering on his behalf as before.
As far as the absent commenters here- AnonoRat was/is just conventional wisdom with a twist of hysteria. The other good ones I suspect have just thrown up their hands and gone off to prepare for what comes next.
A few things: 1. Some regulars are not commenting as much or at all for, i suspect, good reasons. If people have decided Obama will have to do, or even that they like him, then this place isn’t going to be comfortable for them. I’ve no problem with that. If Mittens wins I’m betting this blog will end up being hard as hell on him. For now he doesn’t supply the “meat” Obama routinely does. I look at Romney and think “Really? Who cares?” He’s be just another GOP POTUS. He’s not a right wing freak. And I don’t see him as destroying the left so he’s just not the enemy Obama is in my mind. Given that, why would newly re-minted Dem voters come here? I glance at blogs that make my skin crawl to keep up on what people are saying/thinking. But rarely if ever participate.
2. My attempted “conversation on race” was well attended by this blog’s standards but uncomfortable. I get that, too. I tried. It went where it went. Frankly, it’s not at the top of my list of interests anyway past being sick and tired of being called names.
3. Numbers are steady here, in fact, a bit higher than the norm on some days. Yesterday was the best sunday in years mostly based on amusement with the Obvita image i gather. Given my constitutional inability to go whole hog into red state land, or avoid calling out the bullshit that is Obama, this place is stuck without a “team” during high season for team choosing. You want to hear how Obama is the better choice or feel 100% good about making peace with Romney I doubt this place helps. In my lesser moments I wish I could embrace Barry O or right wing nuttery, i’m sure a big crowd would follow. But neither are me. The Right is more animated right now, that makes for topics to write about. Except for the social issue demons I’m non plussed by much of it. I came to during Reagan. The TPers don’t scare me. Nor do I think they are horrible people. There is rarely a moment in our history when they aren’t around. The abdication of the mainstream Left to one personality, who does not even represent them, is new, however. So that’s a meatier topic. But hey, the hits keep coming here.
Finally, Most of our social groups can tell us alot about enthusiasm. Little about outcome. Most people I still know will vote for Obama again. A few will clamp up and secretly vote for Romney. And some of that group won’t bother to vote and those that do won’t be phone banking etc this time. The race if for the middle. Saw a poll today that has MR winning them by 10%. Those are the numbers to watch.
hello, i have an opinion that some people are probably just lurking instead of commenting like myself because i am just busy… busy planning a wedding and trying to sell a house, so i don’t think it is all political, that everyone who doesn’t comment is going to vote for obama. i just think lot’s of people are probably busy with spring being in full force. i bet as the election gets closer and more obots find the blog and start to comment their propaganda, all of us will be back commenting and sticking it too the obots. enthusiasm is just higher the closer you get to the election or when scandals hit the mainstream and people are just getting out with spring in full bloom now… anyhoo, that’s the case for me, i still lurk, and i agree with john all the time, so i just don’t comment so much. there is no way in hell even if this is the last year we are to exist would i vote for obama ever
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Hatred only breeds more hatred. You are a strong advocate of gay and women’s right. Please explain how someone from these two specific demographic groups could vote GOP in 2012? I’m beginning to suspect you’re on Koch Brothers payroll.
“When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross.”
~ Sinclair Lewis
Peter, if I’m on the Koch Bros payroll the check must be lost in the mail.
I also note that you showed up within minutes of Obama’s announced “evolution” on gay marriage sounding very “OFA” ish… So who be working for whom, dude?
FYI: I’m quite sure Obama’s announcement today is 80% bullshit, but I appreciate it and commend him for it.
Eff, not another Obamabot Blog Pet! They breed like mosquitos.
This ‘bot blog pet also has a reading comprehension problem. JWS has never said he’d vote for the GOP candidate.
I, on the other hand, “Peter” WILL definitely vote for Romney over your LordObama. Oh, yes, and I’m gay, a woman, and a naturalized American. Put that in your bl#*dy hopium pipe and smoke it.
So long, ….I hear OFA calling you.