Time for another periodic 2012 election gut check. This one is more inconclusive than the last.
The 2012 election has all the makings of a kick ass, all out brawl…
- Old media is shadow boxing for Obama. Much of the new media is just getting warmed up to trash old media for bias. The GOP contender means business, and the Superpacs that support him mean even more business. The sitting POTUS’s people are pure Chicago/Alinsky Political Mafia – and this time they have to go there to win. There being the land of overt dirty tricks. The other side will respond in kind.
- NBC and its off spring, CNN, WAPO, NYT, LATimes, ABC, Hollywood, and Soros will be in full on propaganda mode for The One. FOX, Mega PACs, the Koch Bros, Talk Radio, and a thousand of Karl Rove’s children will be out banging the drum for Mittens.
- The fair weather, faux , Facebook libs are back in a groove, but this time red staters are also facebooking and tweeting like there’s no tomorrow. This will be the first election in which both sides are fully armed and engaged on the social networking front.
- Barry’s marriage chat brought in some serious green…but also forced the rightwing firebreathers out in the open. The envelope stuffing, phone banking brigades on both sides are now at the ready.
- The economy isn’t good enough to ensure BHO’s re-election or bad enough to hand the win to Romney. The slightest move could swing the election. A murder of black and brown swans is in the wings warming up…and yet not a one may strut on stage before November. Or they all could. More than a few did last time.
- SCOTUS may humiliate the President in June, while gifting him a perfect way to savage the GOP. Or it may hand him a stunning victory that ensures the middle runs out the door to vote for Romney.
- I suspect many are done with the Barack show, but find taking a shine to Romney difficult to say the least. Both are prone to make campaign mistakes, though we’ll only hear about Romney’s in the old media. New media will tend to Barry’s. Watch for more WAPO “bully” style hit pieces, followed by new media take downs. (Yes, I expect an odd role reversal this year. Obama will rely on old media massaging, but unlike 2008 cannot rely on new media compliance. The GOP has new media armies now….thanks to Dem ineptitude in 2010. )
- Eric Holder will be providing some drama. As will both conventions. As will Europe. And Syria. And who knows what else? Iran? Israel? Iowa? Occupy?
- Biden is a mess, while Romney’s veep pick is a wild card. Rubio? Portman? Christie?
- Does Obama give up on Ohio and North Carolina and look West?
- Does Romney need to spend resources shoring up Arizona of all places? He may have to.
- Will there be a Mormon Effect? (see Bradley Effect)
I cannot remember an election cycle with so much potential for high drama and high jinx. Nor do I remember one in which my gut checks kept coming back with “I have no idea who’ll win.” You’ll just have to believe me when I state that my gut has been correct on every national election since 1976. Including the W versus Gore debacle, when my gut loudly announced - in 1994- that George W Bush would be POTUS.
As for me, I’m leaning toward Rocky Anderson at the moment. The third-party trail is a lonely road but I strongly prefer it at the moment. (I’m interviewing Mr. Anderson at 6pm Pacific Tuesday. Come back here for details.)
Oh, and if you want my gut’s early take on 2016 here it is: President Romney raises the possibility three-fold of a President Clinton in 4 years. Events will head butt whoever wins in 2012. Obama wins, he’ll ruin the Democratic brand for a decade or more. Romney wins he’ll mostly just ruin himself. As for the nation? Ah, well…we’re more or less ruined for the next 4 years no matter which man wins in 2012.
So no real stand? No attempt at solutions? Just participating in some kind of sensationalist mumbo jumbo? It’s always funny to me when people can only bash and make fun of everything from above without actually ever trying to get their feet dirty and stand for what they might believe in. How droll.
Dude, whoever you are…thanks for coming by…once. Lordy, most of what I do is take stands…I’ve spent YEARS on this blog making a case…from the public option to public financing. To the Iraq invasion, to the fraudulent nature of Obama, the NDAA, to gay rights… Thanks for the drive by snark though. Please come back more. Say something based in reality next time…what the hell…
(proof that obots are coming out of the woodwork, just like you predicted above,
john
I know…these Obots are really ridiculous. Do they really think that by coming here and shitting on this blog, they’ll ‘convert’ us, or sumthin’. If anything, and assuming it were possible, they cause us to dislike him even more.
Hey JThomasin, run along now and suck on the LordObama’s pipe (double entendre intended). I hear OFA whistling for useful tools.
I see OFA has assigned us a new Kommissar.
Oh, Mr. Massengill, you really don’t understand the point of this blog, do you? Having visited yours, which was probably the point of your snark above, I’m astonished at your condescension.
Note: Clicking LIKE on Facebook is not political action and cheering for your ‘team’ requires not one shred of intellectual acuity. That’s why they give you pom poms.
On top of all that, Jay, the guy is functionally illiterate. Scooted over to see his ‘writing,’ and fell over laughing. As JWS is fond of saying, Obama causes brain damage in the Left.
I’d like to suggest that he re-name his blog “Zero Comments”.
How does a “forward-thinking progressive” support assassinations, illegal wars, murder of civilians, coddling of BP and BofA, pandering to the insurance lobby, taking away our 1st, 4th & 5th Amendment rights, etc.?
Dude claims he’s from Kansas City. More like Jonestown.
Solutions. A few choices.
1. Vote 3rd party. Any third party. We must break the 2 party headlock before it’s too late.
2. Vote for Romney. At least if he wins the Left will come to and grow a set.
3. STOP participating in the media/facebook/tweet culture. Vote for whoever you like but DO NOT be a team player. Period. Read. Think. Vote knowing your vote comes with DEMANDS and EXPECTATIONS. Don’t get “on a team” before an election and then wander off until some false narrative gets you to “like” something on facebook. That is not engagement. It’s surrender.
I’m planning to head down the 3rd party road myself, not for the first time. The main question is which 3rd party candidate. I’m still looking at these folks. Since none of them has a chance of winning, I guess it doesn’t matter which one I pick. But I take it very seriously nonetheless.
FWIW, Romney is airing ads here in Michigan, so we are officially a swing state in play.
This is shaping up to be a rather exciting election with two rather unexciting candidates.
I agree we need a third party, and probably even any third party (and Anderson defilitely deserves a look). But the whole electoral system has to be completely reformed, since with the present winner-take-all system there is approximately zero incentive to vote for the third party. Remember how many delegates did Ross Perot win in 1992 with his 19% of the popular vote? Right, zero of them.
If more folks voted third party, more reform might happen. Waiting for others to do so or the perfect 3P will not happen. I’ve voted 3P since the Greens qualified in ’04 for California’s ballot (103k voters needed to register) but only seven parties have managed since 1953 to do so. The Justice Party is suing along w/ the Constitution P on behalf of the ACLU for state access. The system is rigged, of course, List, but if we don’t like what Noam Chomsky labels the two slight variations on the one true “business party,” despite my own failure to find an ideal party, I will happily vote on principle and endure the spite of family and friends who still blame me for Bush vs. Gore vs. Nader. Also, non-partisan and Decline to State shows the two variations a lot of us are disgusted and distrustful. I agree lack of incentives are there, “but if not now, when…?”
fionnchu, I’m with you. I am voting 3rd party to register my data point as None of the Above. I wonder what percentage of None of the Above votes it would take to make an impact? I really wish we had a None of the Above option and if it got a certain percentage, both parties would have to present new candidates.
There lies another problem – when we say “vote third party”, there will be a dozen of them splitting the 5%-10% of the “third party” vote. I think the most realistic third party scenario would be a split of a Republican / Tea Party, and the Tea-free Republican party could claim the middle and should pull in enough independents and some democrats (such as the “blue dog” segment) to control enough seats in Senate and Congress to pass pretty much any law it wants to pass. All you need is a 40(D)-20(R)-40(T) split in Senate and a few majority-making seats in Congress.
List, I think it’d make more sense to split the Dem Pty. Split the Obamacrats from the sensible Dems. What do you think?
That’s less likely, since even though the Dem Party is a patchwork of different groups, there is no organized and powerful group like the Tea Party within the Democrats which would be strong enough to split the party. As of now, OWS is just a bunch of unhappy people without a purpose or organization.
NES, like it. Although, like you, I’m not an actual dem either.
List, then you should support the ‘majority rules’ state initiatives designed to circumvent the Electoral College. It’s a start & a simple fix.
Instituting proportional representation would require a near total re-write of Art. I.
And I do support that.
Yes the party system is awful. Yes it needs reform. But I mostly think having the big two is preferable to many small parties where they have to rig the insufferable coalitions with strange and unworkable governments working at cross purposes. The political sausage making is at the party level in this country. I have little to no hope that Republicans learned anything from the Bush II debacle, and I can only hope that Democrats have enough sense to purge the hell out the party of the Obama-crats. The Republicans seem to be ascendent because of the awfulness of Obama but there are a lot of Dems who are going down with him because of their own ineptitude and craven cowardice. Winning brings out the worst in Republicans and I hope loosing will be bring out the best in Democrats after the rat’s nest is cleared out. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
thumbs up, that what i am hoping too. the fact is that dems fight and get more done for the democratic agenda when they aren’t in control. when they are in control, they only worry about losing votes so they don’t take any risks and don’t fight for any of their agenda that is the reason we wanted them in control, like equal rights and finally solidifying women’s rights… etc….
“Plan for the worst’, oh drat, I thought we were already in “worst’ mode..Will the ‘bots’ not be happy until we look like Greece ?
The problem with reminders of our Bush past, is that it doesn’t look nearly as crazy as it actually was, compared to the present. O suffers by comparison to all but Carter, and even then, it’s a toss up at best.
I live in MA, and the world didn’t come to an end when Romney was governor. In the aftermath we have near universal health insurance coverage, gays and lesbians can get married, and I can get to the airport in less than an hour. While he’s not responsible for any of them, his tenure as governor didn’t stop them from happening.
A salient point, Elliesmom. Thanks for making it.
Interesting article from the NY Post online:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/the_bribe_to_silence_wright_io9jneobl3fUF0cb7LpcNM
And yes, as John said, if nothing else we should stop trying to be part of a “team” and be part of the GroupThink that is being rammed down our collective throats through the mainstream media… read, think, question, be informed… and if one does all that and still lands on either choice in a two party system then so be it.
ROFL on the Newsweek Obama gaylo cover! He looks utterly RIDICULOUS. So loving it. As SophieCT noted elsewhere, the White House must be shitting bricks. (Serves BO’s manipulative campaign right.)
Doubly ironic is that many have always suspected him of being gay….
Here’s the Newsweek cover. http://abcnews.go.com/politics/t/blogEntry?id=16338552
Andrew Sullivan reports for duty as First Obama-Fluffer: http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/05/newsweek-cover-the-first-gay-president-123283.html
ROFL I like that they used Serious Obama Brand TM face rather than Smiling Obama Brand TM face, or Upturned Chin Eyes Closed Obama Brand TM face.. too bad they couldn’t photoshop in the the thing that Obama Brand TM does with his fingers where Obama Brand TM makes the “OK sign” and curls his additional fingers around the index finger to highlight his point, like Obama Brand TM is plucking the point out of the brilliance of his own ether.
What a douche.
I fixed the newsweek cover NES.
Faro-brill, DE. I saw it and laughed. Thx.
Maybe it’s a hetero woman ‘thing’ , to protect us from falling for someone who will never be into ‘us’. But I have thought from the first, the O was on the d/l. The more I read of his background, the more evident it became to me. Men who like women, no matter their size, shape or age, cannot hide it, and mostly, they don’t try too hard.. Thank goodness.
No offense to anyone on the other team, it’s a primal thing..And likely is for everyone . How else would we ever find love ? Even for one night ?
I do think Mo is an angry Black woman, can’t say in this case, that I blame her. Such is the life of the Beard. Although it seems to pay well..
There is no sense of taking comfort in each other, with the O’s. Even the Clintons’ have that, no matter what.
O looks highly UN-comfortable around his bride, I think she intimidates him. Heck, she even scares me..
I agree with you, Sophie. I’ve always thought Zero was gay or bi-sexual. Too many things don’t add up to him being straight. But then I believed Larry Sinclair, and there was the gay choir director, etc. etc.
I’ve said it before, but I’m also voting third party. I would never vote for zero. Blech. He’s creepy and I won’t ever forget what he did in 2008. I also remember the horrible gossip when Jeri Ryan’s divorce was unsealed so that zero could win the Illinois senate seat. I am a Star Trek fan and loved Voyager and really loved Seven of Nine’s character played by Jeri Ryan.
Pop
Sitting in his seat, a seat broad and broken
In, sprinkled with ashes,
Pop switches channels, takes another
Shot of Seagrams, neat, and asks
What to do with me, a green young man
Who fails to consider the
Flim and flam of the world, since
Things have been easy for me;
I stare hard at his face, a stare
That deflects off his brow;
I’m sure he’s unaware of his
Dark, watery eyes, that
Glance in different directions,
And his slow, unwelcome twitches,
Fail to pass.
I listen, nod,
Listen, open, till I cling to his pale,
Beige T-shirt, yelling,
Yelling in his ears, that hang
With heavy lobes, but he’s still telling
His joke, so I ask why
He’s so unhappy, to which he replies . . .
But I don’t care anymore, cause
He took too damn long, and from
Under my seat, I pull out the
Mirror I’ve been saving; I’m laughing,
Laughing loud, the blood rushing from his face
To mine, as he grows small,
A spot in my brain, something
That may be squeezed out, like a
Watermelon seed between
Two fingers.
Pop takes another shot, neat,
Points out the same amber
Stain on his shorts that I’ve got on mine and
Makes me smell his smell, coming
From me; he switches channels, recites an old poem
He wrote before his mother died,
Stands, shouts, and asks
For a hug, as I shink, my
Arms barely reaching around
His thick, oily neck, and his broad back; ’cause
I see my face, framed within
Pop’s black-framed glasses
And know he’s laughing too.
Tamer, I take it that’s the molestation of Bam by his gramps. Did I win the microwave?
why is it that that with that cover they are like trying to be serious, but it only seems like a huge joke? i feel like the cover is just done really amateur like. i mean, really, a solid gradient with no texture in back of his cut out picture, not even like a flattering picture. i mean it seems like it was all last minute, or an intern did it. i don’t know, just seems really really bad personally as a graphic designer. like something you would see as a faux magazine cover in saturday night live…
not that i care if they are making fun of ob, but i do care if they are making fun of gay equality and rights with the amateurishness and cliche of this cover.
Methinks this former designer spots intentional kitsch.
FORWARD.
As in, whatever you do don’t look behind you.
“Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.” — Satchel Paige
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