For all the pontificating and prophesying I do ’round here it’s easy for me to forget the elegant truth dropped on us back in the day. Mr. James Carville brilliantly summed up nearly all elections in 4 words: It’s the economy, stupid.
Today’s awful jobs numbers and stock market cave-in are very bad news for the Obama campaign. He’s needed a positive narrative for some time now. The opportunity for one to emerge is now greatly diminished. Obama’s wiggle room on this front was the nominally improving economy. (If , in November, people feel the economy is inching along in the right direction, they probably stick with the incumbent.) It will take a stunning economic reversal over the summer – a miracle, in fact – for people to feel good about the economy. Europe is boxed in. China is slowing. It’s hard to see where the miracle would come from. But then there’s always Ben…
It appears now that only Bernanke has the power to save the Obama economy. Another round of quantitative easing (That is: created money artificially shoved into the system.) might float us until the first Tuesday in November. But the first 2 rounds of easing haven’t created sustained job growth. Would a third? Doubtful. It will help the stock market to recover. But that won’t last either. The amount of easing it would take to jump-start confidence at this point would shoot commodity prices to the stratosphere.
This election is about competence. Implied in Carville’s political truth is that a candidate must present as competent on economic matters. He or she doesn’t have to be competent, they just have to present as competent. Romney usually does. Obama often does not. This is why attacking Romney’s record as governor is smart. (Though given the shallowness of the Obama campaign so far, it may well be ineffective.) Since Obama doesn’t have a viable positive narrative he must assault Romney’s record in government to survive the bad economy. He must show us that when Romney was chief executive of a state he wasn’t competent. Hope for Obama supporters: This is possible. There are reasons Romney did not run for re-election.
If I where in charge of the Obama campaign I would have done the opposite of what they did. That is: My talking points would have been to complement Romney’s private sector prowess, then hammer his public service record. I would have drawn a bright line between the private sector and government service. I live in a state that just suffered for 6 years because of the delusion that a successful business man will automatically translate into a succesful governor. Business acumen does not always equal political leadership. If Axelrod was the political strategist he’s feted as being he would have seen this dichotomy and exploited it. Now it’s too late to do a 180 on Bain. But they can still trash Romney’s record as Governor. It doesn’t need to be – and won’t be – fair. Given today’s jobs numbers what other choice does Obama have?
Here’s the thing about QE. If you do it in a big burst, kinda like a defibrillator, it can work to revive an economy. But if you use it in dribs and drabs — as is being done — just to keep a moribund economy clinging to Life Support — it’s better to not bother.
On a side note, did y’all see wear Dear Leader blamed Congress for the latest bad jobs report?
Obama will be blaming the Sitting Bull for the shitty economy before we’re through. Where was he? Some hippie party?
He was with The Choom Gang.
This probably needs to be taken with more than a grain of salt, but I like U.Man’s style:
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/05/30/white-house-insider-obama-in-serious-trouble-and-that-makes-him-very-dangerous/
Read this last night. Again…I love the stuff, and buy gobs of it. I just find it hard to fathom that this “insider” remains and “insider”…. but I do love the part where he warns people off chicago.
I totally get the Mamet vibe John identified. I believe Ulsterman’s shit is true, to a degree, but also that he has no real source. The little minutiae & asides, to set the scene & establish the veracity, ring just a little too targeted & calculated to not be fabricated.
Too clever to a fault, in other words.
Just read the Upholtermann piece. It’s either completely fabricated or rewritten by someone who’s seen too many old movies. His interviews are always shot in black and white. You can smell the cigarette smoke.
But those comments…. wow. The internet has done crazy people the biggest favor in the world. Finally, they can gather without fear that we’ll notice that they’re masturbating with strawberry Gogurt.
Although I think his take probably isn’t all that far off, I agree with Jay that the way he frames it has more in common with a William Wyler movie than anything approaching journalism or sourced information from an “insider.” A grain of salt or strawberry gogurt, indeed!
That was an entertaining piece, Sophie!
And, as Jay notes, the comments are deliciously loony. And informative — saved me from having to look up John 9:38, or whatever the F.
On style, I think it’s post-Watergate. The Insider is more than a little like Deep Throat.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-clinton-praises-romneys-sterling-business-career-we-shouldnt-say-its-bad-work/
Sophie, I saw this after my suggestion posted above. It makes me happy to know I think like Bill C. Praising his Biz record then slamming his government record it exactly how Bill would have played it. It’s smarter. He’s smarter.
No, John, you’re not as devious as WJC. He came not to praise Romney, but to bury him…or so he said. Actually, he came to praise Romney and to bury Obama’s re-election bid. In one fell-swoop he kicked the legs out from Obama’s campaign strategy and the power of incumbency, and put both candidates on a par, while praising one’s (not Obama’s) career as “stellar.” It was a masterful performance.
After a lengthy & fruitless effort to depict Romney as an heartless, greedy, hair-cutting bastard, then less than a week of attacking his business record before that backfired, OFA stumbles out of the gate on hitting Romney on his governing record.
Schadenfreude Rising!
Oh, I intend to schadenfreude my head off ’til November. Sometimes publicly.
How sweet is Schadenfreude.
Axelrod might as well have been wearing a Yankees’ cap when he showed up at the MA statehouse.
Like the one Curt Schilling used to wear?
I LOVE Bill Clinton for this: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/ron-bonjean/2012/06/01/bill-clintons-wisconsin-campaigning-defies-obama
Obama will rue the day he tried to tar this guy as a racist. Only a narcissistic fool like Obama would underestimate WJC.
As JWS likes to ask, “What explains the timing?”. Why did WJC make his pro-Romney comments on May 31? Seems obvious to me: it’s ‘cos he views that day the same way most of us do–a day of infamy. Four years later it’s PAYBACK time and, let’s face it, Bill Clinton was always the original PUMA.
Pass the popcorn!
I’m glad I read to the end, NES. I wanted to say the same- only you said it so much better than I could ever. Just keep talking…I’ll keep nodding my head and saying AMEN.
leslie, thanks! XX
“There’s no question that, in terms of getting up, going to the office, and basically performing the essential functions of the office, a man who’s been governor and had a sterling business career crosses the qualification threshold.” — Bill Clinton on Romney
Pretty sure he just drew attention to how UNqualified Obama was in 2008.
Note the “getting up and going to the office”. Does Bill think O is a slacker? Woody Allen wrote 80% of success is showing up.
Could it be that Obama won an election no Dem could’ve lost (given Bush/GOP fatigue) and we mistook that for extraordinary skill on his and Axelrod’s/Plouffe’s parts? As we see the Obama campaign stumble out of the gate and Obama himself campaign as an aggressive and unlikeable pit-bull, I’m beginning to suspect that that’s true.
NES, what an interesting observation, I am still surprised that McCain got as many votes as he did, all things considered.
What caught my attention in the U man piece was the bit about the campaign headquarters in Chicago. It did strike an odd note at the time. But it makes sense from the point of view that the Daley-Rahm machine, along with the local media will provide an awful lot of cover for O’s henchmen.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/01/obamateurism-of-the-day-753/
Don’t his in-house dolts realize that the only people who admire this ***t either aren’t old enough to vote or live in group homes ?
P.s. Okay I take ‘group homes’ back, it sounds as insensitive as O’s “special olympics’ remark.. Substitute “zombies” if you wish. This campaign ‘team’ however, never ceases to amaze in the degree of contempt they show to average voters.. Now who are the elitists.?
Photo shopping a haloed version of zero, super imposed over the names of those lost souls of my generation is just dimwitted and disrespectful..
Substitute half-way houses and you are good.
OMG OMG OMG. http://obamamerica.org/
Seriously retching material. If they poll tested this before launching, it proves we’re still a nation of Ozombies.
Got Fascism?
It’s written & illustrated like a cloth book for three year-olds.
We live in the USO now huh.
That site is nauseating and grossly misleading, just like any trailer for a Michael Bay movie.
It’s official. There will be a Scott Brown sign in my front yard.
Fuck them all.
The Democratic Party needs to die, and quick.
It is already dead in several states. I have thought since 2008 the Democratic party will be basically a regional party. When that happens the current one party states will start forming minority parties when the Republicans start with the major stupid stuff.
Not dead, rather undead. The current Dem Party is squatting in spot where we need a real party of the people to exist.
As Rocky Anderson said on John’s show (and as the rigged convention in MA today proved), the Dem Party is “irretrievably corrupt.”
It needs to be taken out by a wrecking ball, and the rubble carted away so we can build a new party on the site. It’s a messy job, but tolerating someone like Scott Brown for a while is not the worst of options.
OH Nes…I now have bile,[ for real } in my throat. Shameless, and condescending..
The insider said “He (obama) has been manufactured since day one. Day f-cking one. ”
THAT rings incredibly true!
Can’t tell you how much I appreciate the Ulsterman comments- Jay, you clarified my Mamet rant. Yes, Fio and Jay: A 40s noir picture is a much better image. And yet I cannot condemn UM. He’s got the “vibe” of the admin right. And he demonstrates a real creativity about it. It’s his device I’ve never trusted. And as TL said: The writing is too good, not great mind you, but good. Best show in a solid regional theater type of good. The kind of show that season subscribers love.
as for the comments…wow. We can’t escape our crazies anymore.
Also interesting takes on the Clinton comment. I figured he was just telegraphing to the blunderbuss Obama campaign how it ought to be done. But on second thought there is probably no Democrat in America who wants to see Obama lose more than Bill Clinton. He knows Hillary – if she wants it – has a much better shot after 4 years of Romney. 8 years of Obama – or a truncated 2nd Obi term – spells disaster for anyone with a “D” after their name.
Some of the inmates have started to escape, this is not a coincidence. J. Carville hasn’t had his heart in the p.c. place since the Gulf disaster. Now Clinton slips in his Romney praise..One has to wonder if the Big Boys have had enough of Bo.. Clinton is at risk, healthwise, and he knows it. Call me one of the conspiracy crazies, but Obie doing an LBJ, which he will agree to only under threat of exposure, prosecution, or the money being cut off, does not seem like a bridge too far. Alas, maybe wishful thinking.. We had dinner with a few of our Brit friends and all had the Queen’s favorite cocktail Dubonnet and gin, in honor of her Diamond Jubilee, Liz must be one tough cookie if she can handle a few of those…oh my aching head! Maybe the gin has made me fanciful..