While reading some nonsense New York Times article about who Mayor Bloomberg intends endorse for President I came across this image:
It’s the Electoral College breakdown as of today and I find it rather remarkable. Firstly, it’s in the New York Times and honest about the swing states. North Carolina is clearly back to leaning GOP, whereas Wisconsin is probably up for grabs, a reality many Democrats won’t confront. The map admits both as reality. Which both are.
Secondly, it’s remarkable how close the race is. Only 2 months ago almost every MSM talking head was yapping about Obama, the sure winner. If the election were today I’d pick Obama by a whisker as I’m not convinced Romney can pull off Pennsylvania. But the election is not today.
If this map remains unchanged until October then I’ll pick Romney to win with some ease and throw Michigan into the “up for grabs” stack, too. Late breaking voters usually break for the challenger, a dynamic that’s building this year as no poll tracks the annoyance factor.
I suspect annoyance with Obama is wider than we know. Empty suits, even ones with some initial charm, grate after a while. There’s always a moment when the whispered grumble in the crowd of “That guy’s full of shit. ” hits a critical mass. Obama’s campaign tactics thus far seem to be inviting this moment. The President keeps bursting into the room, yelping something, (waronwomen! Gay marriage! Immigration!) posing for pictures, then retreating to The View or the golf course. Everyone who expected him to talk about jobs or the economy – finally – thinks to themselves, “Wait, that guy’s the boss? He’s a clown.”
Granted, I find thinking up a positive Obama re-election narrative nearly impossible. I’ve tried. The cupboard is bare. My best shot: SCOTUS guts Obamacare. Obama runs as the final line of defense against the GOP devils. That might work. John Roberts throwing gimpy children off the cliff is pretty rich stuff. If Obama stops lecturing and serves up the class warfare with a smile it’s even richer.
Then again, I’m not running a presidential campaign. Surely, OFA higher-ups knew they’d need to sell something….didn’t they? Surely, they watched Romney dismantle Gingrich and Santorum…didn’t they? (Admittedly, both men are pikers but still – Mitten’s machine was harsh). Surely, Axelrod didn’t design a re-election plan consisting of Big Obama Speeches circa 2008 and the occasional distracting talking point dart from brush…and nothing else…did he? Does Obama’s team still believe their man is good at politics though all the accumulated evidence now suggests he’s a rotten communicator with no leadership skills to speak of? It seems they might. Obama’s lack of a positive narrative so far implies his team doesn’t think he needs one, or he doesn’t think he needs one. It appears weird and self-destructive. From the outside looking in narcissism usually does.
Late breakers break for the opponent. The map indicates a close race. Therefore, the most remarkable truth to be extrapolated from the map is this: The race is now Romney’s to lose.
Oh, and Willard may well find a way to lose it, too. The media is aching for the Romney windsurfing moment. The man is more than capable of supplying it. If he doesn’t? Then today’s map is bad news for Obama.