I see 2 glide paths for the Presidential race if the campaigns play out as set without interference:
A. The studied, cool Romney campaign versus the manic, panic Obama campaign continues. Things remain close. In the end the economy tips the balance, Romney wins.
B. The studied, cool Romney campaign versus the manic, panic Obama campaign continues. Things remain close. A real or media created Romney team gaffe occurs. The media pulls Obama over the finish line…again.
But what if an outside event intrudes? Is there a man-made Hurricane Isaac churning off shore threatening to disrupt the campaign’s course ? I think there is.
At some point Israel will attack Iran. I don’t write that because I want Israel and Iran going to war. I write it because they almost certainly will at some point. Iran’s nuclear program is the flash point. But even if Israel could learn to accept what it sees as a mortal threat in Iran obtaining nukes, the basics of how regional powers behave suggest an Israel/Iran war is an eventuality. Iran as the undisputed regional big dawg is untenable for Israel.
Unlike the Syrian civil war, the impact of an Israel/Iran war would be immediate here. The price of oil would skyrocket, which means in short order the price of everything would rise. The economic slow down would take a few months. The social disruption would be immediate. American soldiers in the region would almost certainly come under attack via Iranian terror cells. There would be terror alerts in the U.S.
In watching this story evolve I’ve found it difficult to see a scenario in which war doesn’t occur. The event is waiting on either Netanyahu’s persuasion skills or an Archduke Ferdinand moment. I now think the war will start after our election and before Christmas, though I obviously have no way of knowing. If Obama wins Netanyahu has nothing left to lose. If Romney wins Netanyahu may delay until January 21st but not much longer.
Without seeming too cold-blooded about it – it is worth asking: Which candidate benefits if Israel pulls the trigger before November? Does a pressured Obama involve us quickly? Or does he stand aside risking a furious backlash from the Right and many Jewish voters? (Standing aside is a near impossibility if Iran disrupts the flow of Middle Eastern oil.) Does the Romney/Ryan domestic front campaign seem suddenly out of step with a potential regional and world-wide conflagration occurring? Or is Obama’s foreign policy rendered suspect?
Iran and Israel can’t reach each other without crossing air space we control.
The Iranians have missile frigates, as do the Israelis. The Israelis also have SLCM-capable submarines (while the Iranians also have a small sub fleet, none of their subs are believed to be missile-carrying). It might take a bit of sailing, but they could smack one another about quite handily without crossing anybody’s airspace. I’m sure the Israelis would like to make use of their land-based Jericho missiles, but it isn’t strictly necessary.
If the attack happens, Iran will retaliate, and Obama will most likely order an attack on Iran. If he does, then, given the popularity of Israel vs. Iran, and of the new exciting wars (as opposed to the ones that start to drag on), he should get a ratings bump sufficient to carry the elections. A new war would distract the attention from the economy, which is pretty much the only area where Romney is believed to have an advantage over Obama, and really show Obama as tough on Iran. Of course, Obama could choose not to help Israel, but with all the strategic or political reason, why would he do that?
If John’s assertion that fuel prices will skyrocket because of that, would the economic repercussions not be bad for Obama? I’m kind of on the fence here. October should be an interesting month….
Sure, the fuel prices will go up, but it’s one thing if they go up for no apparent reason and can be blamed on Obama, and another if that’s because of the war someone else had started.
Well, anyone an start a war, but if the POTUS participates, that’s on him. My feeling is that Obama will do whatever he has to for political reasons only. So, if he has to support Israel in a pre-emptive strike against Iran, it would be for his benefit only. Somehow, I feel that Israel is on to him, and would only strike if they knew the POTUS would support them for reasons that transcend politics. In other words, Israel has spanked Obama’s ass by acknowledging who he really is, and is most likely NOT going to strike Iran until the outcome of the US election is predictable. At this point, it could go either way.
Anonymous above ^ is Anthony. Had no idea it would post without signing in.
I think he would do that both because Israel is an ally, and for political reasons. I don’t know which would be more important, but it may not matter in the short term. And while the fuel prices are important, I am sure you agree that the media will devote way more attention to the shiny new war than to the fuel prices.
A war before the election would help Obama, IMO. Because of that, Netanyahu won’t act until after the election. He sees Iran as the primary existential threat, but, in his mind, Obama isn’t too far behind on that list.
What’s puzzling is that, reportedly, Obama has requested the Israelis to delay taking any action before Nov. 6. (I’m not aware of any denial by the WH of that report; has anyone?) Apparently, he doesn’t agree that it’d help him. [Or maybe he's not as craven as I think he is (although I seriously doubt that).]
I think Obama would lose more than he would gain. An attack on Iran would mobilize Jewish voters and maybe the four or five evangelical Christians who aren’t voting Republican for whatever reason. But the lefty peace hippy voters would most likely stay home or vote for Jill Stein if Obama drags our country into World War Three– which is exactly this would turn out to be.
To continue (I place it here as the thread two days ago ended) Anthony et al.’s stream on why O needs the “minorities” to make a majority—no matter how (un-)documented to vote: “Obama’s strategic equation defines Mitt Romney’s formula: 61/74. Romney’s camp is focused intently on capturing at least 61 percent of white voters. That would provide him a slim national majority—so long as whites constitute at least 74 percent of the vote, as they did last time, and Obama doesn’t improve on his 80 percent showing with minorities.” Which must match holding 40% of whites.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/obama-needs-80-of-minority-vote-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824
P.S. As I catch up with last Wednesday’s show streamed–great comments by all. Tamerlane’s “Who cares about the silver standard?” #1.
I don’t know. It seems to me that if Obama did go to war for any reason at this late date, it would have the effect of fully ripping off the mask for more Americans. He would be nakedly exposed as the careless opportunist he is, willing to do anything to get what he wants, no matter how bad it is for other people.
That said, did you see this John? Romney’s ass in full moon. I’m loving it.
Via myiq2xu @ TCH.
ha! It’s also a perfect line for Michigan. Native son…Point of pride etc…
Reports out of Israel of late indicate an attack sooner rather than later. But this may be tough guy propaganda. Bibi doesn’t want to be seen as shackled by our election…though he is. Plus, all things considered – including the pro obama media – it’s hard to see how a pre election attack helps Romney. Bibi distrusts Obama and probably doesn’t want to help him. But what if he gets info that it must happen ASAP. Our elections won’t matter. I think this plays out late in the year if only to give the Mayans some cred… but it’s interesting to second guess.
It was a HUGELY dumb ass move of Romney not to cop to what he said about birth certificates in Michigan today.
I’m leaning toward the man being a political moron.
That was me up there as Anon…
LONG POST WARNING
My gut feelings on how 2012 could play out:
Obama WIn Scenario 1: 2000 all over again. It just stays this close. Obama wins popular vote, Romney wins electoral vote or the race is simply too close to call. Obama is running his campaign the same way he has run his other campaigns (aka the underhanded way) and goes for the recount and is kept in office. I give Obama the slight edge in terms of dirty politics, even if he wins by a miniscule margin the media will hail it as a triumph for Obama.
Romney Win Scenario 1: Romney has a moment where he clicks with undecideds and they break for him in significant numbers. So far, I haven’t seen anything from Romney to indicate where he is capable of doing this. I just don’t think he’s got the charisma and his vision isn’t all that much different than the scads of Republicans who have came before him. Reagan had the charisma to sell that trope, Romney just doesn’t IMO. Ryan seems like an “earnest” guy but honestly who gives a crap about how nice he is or really anything about Ryan for that matter, it’s not his campaign. Romney needs that “moment” with voters to win by 3% IMO. I’m still waiting for him to have that moment.
Also, re: “the Walker margin”… I cringe every time I hear this… like its some kind of mandate for Tea Party or movement towards Republican voters or the values that Walker is espousing..Walker won by pretty much the same margin in 2012 that he did in 2010 and that Democratic buyer’s remorse is a good part of that, but that’s just one part of what’s going on.
I think that if nothing else, if one political party sucks bad enough voters have the right to replace with opposition party.
Obama Win Scenario 2: Some type of false flag event (riots) or Obama manufactured crisis (some speculation that Obama might try and force a budget shut down in October then blame it on the Repubs and come off sympathetic to voters) again, dirty politics gives the edge to Obama.
Romney Win Scenario 2: Iran as October Surprise. As far as actual war with Iran… I think if Israel moves against Iran then it’s a foregone conclusion that we’re going to war… the media is already ramping up for it..my concern is that if it devolves from Low Intensity Conflict (Iraq and to a degree Afghanistan) to full on war as countries pile on in a last-ditch mass oil grab then it doesn’t really matter who’s President, but I suspect Romney might have spoken to Netenyahu about his intentions towards Israel, and as much as normally sitting presidents aren’t unseated during wartime, I think in the event of conflict with Iran people will break to Romney enough for him to win. Obama just doesn’t strike me as military competent…even though he killed Bin Laden with his bare hands.
The scariest and most depressing part of that thought for me is:
Pre-WWII US was a mix of agrarian/manufacturing economy up until WWI.
US became arguably the predominant world military/manufacturing power as a result of WWII and as a result we had the boomer generation.
Post WW-II boom and past 70s recession our manufacturing economy shifted overseas and finance “industry” became a way to create money, that lasted about a generation or so and then we’re around Gen-Xish time.
The dot com boom and the housing bubble kept the financial industry model working until it all started falling apart and at that point Generation Y/Millenials played a big part in Obama being elected in 2008.
That particular social experiment has failed, and post financial collapse/post-manufacturing what’s the best way for US to maintain hegemony and stay at the top of the pyramid for another generation or two? Either a prolonged series of low intensity conflicts or WWIII.
That was me up there posted as Anonymous by mistake
Dan, interesting stuff. I’d reverse a few particulars. Riots – say over gas or food (could happen) or race riots or whatever – work for Romney not against him whereas I think a war with Iran works for Obama. Incompetent or not he’d be presented as leader by the media for long enough…
I too wonder about a Romney breakout moment. I swear I can’t tell if he’s “out of touch” or the coolest customer around. He either doesn’t get that he should be concerned about the Obama machine or just isn’t concerned because he knows what’s coming and he knows he’ll win. Obama had some of this coolness in 2008. It was forgone conclusion, he knew it, the end. The difference: Obama had the media. Still does. MR does not. I keep wondering if MR truly understand this gap. 80% of the press he deals with everyday really truly wants him to lose. Yes MR has gotten in BHO’s head. Yes BHO’s campaign is nasty and ugly. But he’s got the media and in a close race it may be enough.The media is focusing on Obama/Biden gaffes but they are CREATING Romney gaffes for him. Obama’s running a vulgar campaign. MR makes a crack about birth certificates and the media is claiming beige Romney is out of line… that there is how they play. Alcoholic family rules.
I’m baffled by MR’s campaign. Which isn’t to say it’s not a good one. I just don’t get it. Annabelle makes good points. She almost sells me on the strategy often. He did survive august. The race is neck and neck going into the conventions. I think Ryan will end up being seen as a very smart pick…..and 2 more months is forever in politics. Obama truly will do anything to win. I keep coming back to: Is Romney too nice – too mormon – to deflect, defend, and punch back? He can handle Obama – Can he handle Obama+media?
I think my ego just can’t stand that it’s almost Sept and I can’t call this one. I worked for John Kerry and I knew he was going to lose. I worked for Bill C twice and knew he was going to win when he was FAR behind in polls. I knew W would be POTUS regardless. (Real power is real power, even here.) This race: no effing idea.
It’s possible the not-really-a-black-swan – black swan moment will be stock market chaos in the fall. Then MR as “the fixer” is set and he doesn’t have to do anything really. Or Obama hammers away as he is now and we’re beaten into submission. Or the MR steady state campaign wins over enough quiet converts to win the day. I just do not know…and about twice a week it makes me bat shit crazy.
I think Annabelle makes some great points re: Romney as well and particularly liked the “mooning” analogy too.
I think legitimate riots help Romney, but OFA manufactured astroturfed riots and protests help Obama IMO. As far as Iran, I hope none of us have to find out how right or wrong we are. I do think that more undecideds will break from Romney if it comes to that, Obama just doesnt strike me personally as re-assuring as a wartime Commander In Chief… although he sure loves those drone strikes.
Part of the reason I’m having a tough time with this race too is that in my mind it’s way too close and both candidates are just similar and boring… Hopey Changey Obama (as fictional as it was) at least had some kind of flimsy narrative attached to it, but in 2012 it seems like he’s got bupkus… calling Romney beige is a good analogy too.. he’s just kinda bland to me… I think he can pull out a win but he needs to connect with people… really CONNECT.
This article is nearly a year old, yet it is doubtful that the media’s image has improved, if anything it’s worse;http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64261.html
.The power of the media is like O’s resume’ ; vastly overrated, and by now, not very believable.
Sophie, if the media (which now includes the Internet) weren’t powerful, Americans wouldn’t be stuck in the Republican versus Democratic mindset.
It should be clear that neither party, on their own, could hold on to their power if the media didn’t use its power to continually drive home the message that we must defend and support one of the two parties or else we are powerless. The truth is the opposite, by continually keeping one of the two big parties in power we keep ourselves powerless; the truth is the media, like a seductive abusive husband, remains very powerful as thought leader even though people insist they’re thinking for themselves.
Imo Romney wins in a landslide. Nothing trumps the economy.
Another card falls:http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/08/report-obama-denied-uva-appearance-133150.html
Seduction trumps the economy. Usually does. Human beings are suckers for being seduced. History is rife with it. And today’s Americans rank very high as investors in seduction.
Votermom: Wish that were true, but I doubt the landslide part. I get that the polls over count Dems, but even then they wouldn’t be showing such a tight race if a landslide were a real possibility. Thoughts?
NES – WAPO has just answered the question “Are you better off than you were four years ago”. That’s all we have to ponder to vote ABO
http://preview.tinyurl.com/better-off-than-4-yrs-ago
for gods sake..
http://tinyurl.com/better-off-than-4-yrs-ago
The media has no power here.
Be gone! Before somebody drops a house on you!
Zal, youi have no power here
Grow up
My comment was about the media, a winking aside to Sophie, playing to her earlier comment about the media’s power being vastly overrated.
Not great comedy, granted, but can’t see how it’s immature.
Anthony, I agree that there’s every reason to vote ABO, and that that’d be the rational thing for all to do. But, we’re talking about the real world here, one in which voters don’t necessarily (if ever) behave rationally. Voting has always been tribal, most people voting for their ‘team’ and distorting reality to justify their votes. Perhaps this year will be exceptional (and will yield a landslide against the incumbent), but why should I believe that when all the polls suggest it’s a tight race? Are the polls that wrong? I don’t see it.
NES – My comment and link weren’t necessarily indicating a landslide, but instead a Romney victory. Sorry I didn’t explain that. I don’t think there will be a landslide victory, but I do think Romney will win, in part because of more articles like the WAPO one that I linked. Obama voters will be faced with more and more facts that he just isn’t capable of living up to the demands of his job, and will either stay home (most likely scenario) or vote for Romney or a third party candidate.
The fact that the race is neck and neck so far is very telling. The GOP money and support will come in after the convention. I think Romney will win, but it will be by a small margin. I think Obama will demand a recount and do as much as he can to prolong what will be an Romney inevitable win, even if its a squeaker.
People aren’t crazy. They know Obama’s failed and they’re not sure if they can trust Romney. But when they get to the polling booth they’re going to think – WTH, might as well roll the dice on the new guy than face another 4 years of more of the same.
Our economy will hit the skids soon. I don’t mean what we’ve been experiencing, I mean like nothing the United States has seen before. And it doesn’t matter whether it’s Obama or Romney in the White House, either way they’ll use our government to help the rich and leave most Americans gasping in the dust.
Thanks to Obama’s election in ’08 we’re in big trouble no matter what, but how the disaster plays out for most Americans will depend on who’s in power. If the current powers remain in control, by which I mean Democrats and Republicans and their corporate cohorts, we’ll be in much worse shape than if any outsider –whether it’s Ron Paul or Jill Stein or Roseanne Barr– were in the Oval Office.
Americans seem to realize we need change and yet they’ll vote in Obama or Romney. There’s a reason.
Zal, Humans have always been suckers for the seducers among us, I know that. Much of history attests to their power, usually they promise everything from untold riches to a ‘chicken in every pot’ Actually, that chicken line could work again, given the present reality. However, so many Americans have lost the ability to ‘use it up, make do, and make it over.’ Our parents were probably the last generation that really ‘got’ that idea. We don’t know how to be poor anymore.
‘Poor’ is not losing your mini mansion and moving to a condo, or downsizing your shopping excursions to Target, instead of Barney’s. Yet, by today’s standards, many more Americans ‘feel’ poor in a way that is wholly unfamiliar to them. That makes them harder to seduce, imo. The traditionally ‘poor’ know how to game the system in ways the newly ‘poor’ have yet to learn.
Besides, once seduced, twice shy.. I don’t think O can pull it off again, that’s not to say he can’t win, the cemeteries are still full of dead people, the graveyards in Chicago are filling up particularly quickly.
While a third party could make a difference, the current media makes it very hard for them to gain traction, there is currently no profit to be made from third parties, or at least, not enough.
They’re the easiest to seduce.
Those who feel secure and strong with what they have are a tough mark; those with nothing to lose are tough. Those who feel what they have slipping away and are fearful of losing more are easy easy marks for a seducer who promises he’ll not only help them keep what they have but gain more besides.
The country has listed from right to left to right to left and may go right again this year. But it’s in the same sinking ship. It’s worse every election cycle. That we actually are seeing people who supported Hillary in ’08 now making the case for Romney is the perfect insanity to cap it off.
Exactly.
Unlike the Syrian civil war
There is no Syrian civil war. It’s an invasion. The West and Gulf States have been sending in mercenaries who are killing Syrian civilians . The Syrian armed forces are fighting the imported mercenaries , many who were involved the phony Libyan “civil war”.
We want an ally of Iran taken out and a clear convoy route from Turkey to Iran before going forward to the hot stage of our war with Iran….but this run up stage is not going as fast as planned .. so the lap dog media is getting in ever more of a twist . But who in thier right mind thinks our concerns are ” humanitarian” ? I mean, come on .