Note: I wrote the bulk of this post in a spasm of Breaking Bad withdrawal Sunday night. I’ve mellowed in my take a bit overnight. But not much. I also note that a few commenters on the previous post are sensing the campaign’s rhythm the same way I am.
I’m loath to predict the outcome of this election (while at the same time - I’m aching to.) but this is about the time in 08 I went on record. Mrs. Palin provided a moderate bump for her team – then Lehman went belly up – and that was that. I tried to hold my powder this time but, being who I am, I find it nearly impossible.
Let’s put it this way: The narratives are embedded now. Set, as it were. For 30 plus years this game been played by the same rules. Most election campaigns in which the outcome was initially in doubt work themselves out in August. 2000 being - sort of – an exception.
August 1988: Dukakis is nominated in July. He more or less takes a 3 week vacation, as only a certifiable fool would. Lee Atwater destroys him via Willie Horton. This August narrative is revisited and crystalized in a Fall debate. Dukakis is asked about the death penalty and the rape and murder of his wife. The question was a complete non sequitur, not unlike the question thrown at Romney earlier this year about birth control. (Still think that question was “random”? That little plant has been watered, massaged and decorated for 8 months now.) Dukakis bobbled the question, of course. How could he not? I’m against the death penalty, unless it’s Kitty, then I’m for it. Screw all your loved ones. The point is that the August narrative set by Atwater paid off in October – not that HW needed it by then. Dukakis was not a strong opponent, but one must plan nevertheless.
August 1992: James Carville choreographs a perfect convention. Clinton’s bounce is enormous. George H.W. Bush declines to do battle with some easy ammo – a youthful image of Clinton at a draft card burning rally in London. Given the moment - Clinton was still a question mark for many – it might have been defining turn. Regardless, HW handed August to Clinton, then handed his convention to Right wing freaks. In August. We skated along with this narrative. Then HW checks his watch in a debate – the August narrative created by Carville and Co. at the DNC - HW is a nice man whose time has passed - is rendered in perfect relief by the old man checking his own watch. The end.
2000 stands alone, but Gore made it much easier for W to slid into the job by shoving aside the best campaigner since FDR, a decision made well before the Fall. He then didn’t even have enough sense to send Clinton to Arkansas. And W’s DUI didn’t come up until the last weekend. If Gore didn’t know about it before that – he should have. Think that type of stuff doesn’t matter or candidates need to be “nice” – think again. We all know where nice guys finish. In the early Fall of 2000, ‘Bush is not trustworthy’ would have played. Instead Gore allowed himself to be taken down as untrustworthy. Dumb, dumb, dumb. I’m sure Gore had opposition research that made Bush into a lying fiend. He chose to play defense.
August 2004: Kerry is entirely viable. People are annoyed with W. He’s beatable. Rove then trashes Kerry in August. Kerry – a political moron – barely responds for 3 weeks! Kerry still makes a race of it, as W was that annoying. But imagine the race if Kerry had punked W back immediately – in August – sunk the Swiftboat on the spot, and buried W with National Guard stories. The difference in 04 happened…in August.
We can extrapolate this cycle through October 2012 with relative ease. Over the summer Axelrod makes Bain the issue. Romney responds – sort of. But he never went on offense. He never made the story not about Bain. Rezko is more recent than Bain. Anybody hear about Rezko this summer? Nope. Romney never changed the damn story. Changing the story is politics 101. Carville jokes about it on a 30 Rock episode called Secrets and Lies , which is to say this basic rule is not a secret. It’s a no brainer.
By mid August Romney is weakened. Ryan helps him a little, but not nearly enough. The RNC is a wash. Probably would have been anyway. The DNC is silly, but Obama has the media (Why doesn’t Romney UNDERSTAND THIS?). Therefore Obama “got a bump”, Romney did not. That meme was always going to be sold no matter what was true … unless Romney had annihilated Obama over the summer. He did not. The Superpacs had the dough to force any story about Obama on us they wanted. Weirdly, all the juicy Obama stuff vanished again, just like 2008. Is the “honorable” John McCain in charge of GOP superpacs?
The Obama narrative was never upended so here is where we are: Obama’s done “okay” as President. He’s more empathetic. The other guy is an awkward, a cold fish, too rich and out of touch.
Where we’re going? Based on observing this sport over decades I predict: The race remains “close” until the debates - with Obama in the lead. Romney “must” convince 5% of the people via the debates. The debates are his “chance”. (You’ll hear that over and over again…this is his “chance”.) Romney will get gotcha questions until one gets him. Even if he never screws up, he’ll be tagged with something, anything. Huffing too much. Or stiff hair. Something. Obama will be “cool under fire”. If Obama screws up it will be news for 24 hours but never – NEVER – a game changer. Even if it clearly is a game changer. We slide into November. Obama wins by a slightly smaller margin than last time. He gloats. Conservatives jump out of buildings, even though the GOP gets the entire Congress. The end.
Again, all this goes back to August. The debates are about Romney, not Obama. If Romney had seared Obama over the late summer an entirely different story would be playing out. If “what we didn’t know about Obama” had become part of the discourse in August – the media could not avoid it in the debates, and Obama would be in the docket. Instead, Romney is. How did that happen with 15% real unemployment? I’ll tell you how: Romney blew it in August.
Outside events often matter. I see very few possibilities for a game changer – and no evidence that Romney’s people would be able to outflank Obama’s if one arose. Still, I’ll give myself an out here. It’s a weird year. Stuff happens. Romney will have opportunities to win. I just don’t see many. Consider this a review and a preview of the next 58 days, not a written in stone prediction. Romney has not already lost the election. With the superpacs he’s got hurricanes of money to unleash. And I find it hard to believe our Wall Street friends will sit by and allow Obama a 2nd term. But they may – and who knows what the snake-in-chief has promised them on the down low. But note this: Superpac spending will move to Senate races if Romney doesn’t change the dynamic pronto.
People who want to be President need to get over their self imposed narrative about being honorable. That moment in our history is past. Over. Sociopaths win. This is our fault, not theirs. Whatever the reason, in order to beat a sociopath one must check certain honorable traits at the door. I’ve been noting since January my hunch that Romney was too damn nice to beat Obama. Mr. Romney is running a campaign for the Presidency of a nation that no longer exists. If he’s going to win he must become ruthless. Is he willing too? Probably not, which speaks well of him. But for the half of the nation that believes Obama is an epic disaster – and they are, in many ways, correct – Romney’s unwillingness to outflank the media and destroy Obama over the summer is galling.
The only thing I can say to corroborate your position is to note that I think Romney is going to win. I am almost ALWAYS wrong about these things. At least since Clinton.
LOL! Me too. And I think Romney has this one in the bag.
IMHO, it really doesn’t matter who watches the debates, and it really doesn’t matter who watched the conventions (i.e., practically no one), all that matters is the advertising. Romney just needs to saturate the airwaves of the swing states with good, hard-hitting ads. The people who were cowed into staying home in 2008 won’t stay home in 2012. And they are the ones who this election rides on. (And I’m seeing a steady stream of people who voted for Obama in 2008 who are planning to stay home or vote 3P.)
It will come down to this … are you better off today than you were four years ago? If more people think, “Yup!” it is Obama for another four years (and some deity will need to help us all). If more people think, “Nope”, then we say hello to President Romney.
My vote doesn’t count (NYS), but I can tell you that I have seen a few Romney signs in these parts and not one Obama sign this cycle. Four years ago, this area was littered with Obama signs after the convention with only a few McCain signs (and some Ron Paul signs which I swear are permanent fixtures) here and there. There is no passion for Obama. He’s such a disaster that even those in my very democratic area can see it. If he is depending on GOTV, he’ll lose. If he doesn’t have the money to pay for dead voters, he’ll lose. If he doesn’t have the money to carpet the swing states with political ads, he’ll lose. And if there isn’t a miraculous economic recovery next month, Obama will lose.
I hope you’re right, Ann. My head tells me you are; my sixth sense tells me Zal may be right.
It’s so frustrating to live in a country where a majority of the population seems poised to make an utterly irrational choice. It should be “about the economy, stupid,” and it appears not to be. I just don’t get why one would stick with this obviously hobbled horse.
“…Romney’s unwillingness to outflank the media and destroy Obama over the summer is galling.”
SO TRUE. WTF is wrong with these Repub. nominees who’re unable to land a punch at a black prez. Yes, that’s what it’s all about. Makes one long for Newtie and his wild, unrestrained, unencumbered-by-PC ways.
John, it’s a very good piece. I pray you’re wrong about the significance of August.
John, I think that Dowton Abby is due to return soon, it’s a far cry from “Breaking” but still great t.v.
The circus media would have you believe that Romney has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. You and they may be correct, but that gives no weight to the mid terms, which are a more recent reflection of the mood of the country. If anything, things are worse than in ’10 for alot of people. The popularity of the anti Obama movie is also telling, imo.
It’s a given that the media will roll out the red carpet for O in the debates, but imo, voter turnout will make a big difference.
Free Bates!!!!
How can you say obama is “in the lead”, when all reliable polls of likely voters place Romney in the lead?
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-did-obama-really-win-summer_652093.html?nopager=1
Tamer, what is up with Justice suing Gallup ? What gets me is that Axelrod and Holder are so confident they have become blatant in their scandalous behavior.. Or should ‘desperate’ be used instead of confident ?
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/10/Despite-media-hype-no-bounce-for-Obama-in-swing-states
DoJ is suing Gallup to pressure them to rig their polls.
I love when Tamer whispers sweet poll truths in my ear. You’ve rescued my flagging spirits – thanks!
John, I had a very glum moment yesterday when I realized at about 6pm that there was no Breaking Bad that night…so I feel your pain.
I think you’re right.. I’ve never watched a GOP convention before, I’ve never given them the time or consideration.. and this year I wanted to see what the opposition to Obama was going to be like… I thought Romney gave a better speech than I thought he was capable of giving, but I was expecting more coming out of that. I think Romney moved the dial a little bit in terms of his overall likeability, but to your point he didn’t do enough to go after Obama leading up to the RNC or coming out of the RNC.
As I said on another post, any day Romney is not spending aggressively attacking Obama and his policies is a day wasted for his campaign. He has the money to do that and I think therein lies the advantage for his campaign… I don’t live in a battleground state so I might just not be seeing the alleged “carpetbombing” of ads against Obama and maybe I’m wrong. There are a little over 7 weeks to go, and at this point Obama has to do is keep going and let the media drag him over the finish line. The polls will continue to skew in his favor and the sense of inevitability will sink in with voters.
Romney is stuck in the loop of having to convince voters why he deserves to be President, rather than putting the onus on Obama to convince voters why he deserves a second term. Obama’s narrative seems to be “Republicans got us into this mess, I’m trying really hard, also I’m not a Republican.. P.S. Hope and Change.” and he’s probably just going to play rope a dope with Romney until Nov 3.
Romney has to get mean, he has to get ugly and he’s got to get dirty to win.
And he can’t just do that in the debates, he has to do it every day from now until Nov 6 because the Obama team sure as hell will be.
I have a typo up there on Nov 3.. I checked the date for the 2nd time but forgot to fix it on the first. But maybe Obama will just go golfing on the 4th and 5th.
I still think just on a monetary level I give Romney a very slight edge, but the mistake he’s made thus far is that he let Obama control the narrative, IMO.
One thing I noticed about Romney during the primaries is that whenever people wrote him off, he would come back. Not strong exactly, but he’d do whatever it took to win that particular primary. Then he’d move on to the next one and it would be the same thing all over again. He looked weak, he looked indecisive, the pundits were ready to give the win to Santorum or Newt. This happened here in Michigan, among other places. The pundits were going on and on about how Romney was going to lose his “home state” which would eventually lead to his demise and a Santorum nomination. It didn’t happen– Mittens won Michigan and went on to win the GOP nomination.
Jen, you make a good point. Romney is a workhorse and seems to play the long, strategic game in the face of difficult odds. Those traits served him well at Bain, and perhaps they’ll serve him well now.
Obama, as we all know, is a unicorn, not a workhorse. And, he plays b-ball — a rapid-fire, time-constrained game, full of trash-talking one’s opponents.
“Obama wins by a slightly smaller margin than last time. He gloats. Conservatives jump out of buildings…”
No. Conservatives hunker down and get to work. They buy more guns and they infuse the Tea Party with more energy. Liberals start jumping out of windows. Liberals stage meaningless protests, uncertain who they’re protesting against. Occupy grows and grows more confused. Liberals burn their voter’s registration cards.
“They buy more guns and they infuse the Tea Party with more energy.”
Pray tell, to what end do they buy guns? Care to de-cloak?
For the record, I’m a liberal and I went down to Occupy LA to add my voice and would have — but I knew what I was protesting, so I didn’t fit in.
For the record, I organized two ‘occupy’ rallies. I was very certain what I was protesting: the corrupting influence of money on politics & society. For the second, I also had a specific target & goal: boycott the big banks, & convince people to move their accounts.
But the occupii were not liberals; they were anarchist, hippie narcissists.
Proglodytes aren’t liberals, either. They’re obsessed with atoning for the sins of their racist fathers. Don’t know about any registration cards, but proglodytes do threaten periodically to move to Canada … just as soon as they locate a good montessori up there.
Your statement implies that conservatives not have enough guns to stop an undesired election outcome. That’s disconcerting. Now, I do hear conservatives touting the importance of guns in defending their ‘rights’, but the only right they seem to mean is the right to own guns. All those gun-owners stood mutely by, with the safety on, while the past two presidents took away our right to:
* Habeas Corpus
* Free assembly
* Freedom from illegal search & seizure
* A speedy and public trial
* Engage or not engage in commerce at will.
True liberals fight for these rights, no matter who tries to take them away, and never give up the fight. Conservatives are a bunch of pussies.
I’ve come to the conclusion true liberals are a very rare breed today.
And now that I’ve realized this, so many unfitting pieces finally fit together; and I’m amazed it took me so long to figure it out.
I can tell you I voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976. Come 1980, I did not. At that time, I still LIKED Mr. Carter as a person – I thought of him as a nice guy who was simply in over his head and who had some “bad luck” in the way things went against him (I did not come to see him as the self-righteous blowhard I consider him to be now until years later.) But my point is that even though I thought him empathetic and a decent person, I did not judge him competent enough to merit a second term. Liking him was not enough – I wanted someone to MAKE THINGS WORK!
I don’t know how many of today’s voters will view Mr. Obama in this way and act as I did (I, as you, do not view BO as likable but as a probable sociopath so there’s no question on what I will be doing this time.) I think it may be more than you think. Liking a guy is fine (if these people REALLY do like him and aren’t just feeding the pollsters a line of bull) but people realize they’re talking about their country, their economy and their livelihoods, not the senior prom. The passengers may all LIKE Gilligan, but they sure as shit don’t want him driving the boat. Like him or not, I think absent a real (not media pretend) turnaround in the economy, many will say it’s time to give someone else a chance. Obama had his turn at bat and whiffed big time.
That’s a awesome username kemosabe!
How’d that Reagan thing work out for ya, Buck?
Tamerlane, Regan was awful. But a second term of Carter would have been a disaster.
djmm
Remember that discussion we had about Romney not taking a dime in pay for any of his public work? That question is going to be asked at a debate. And Romney is going to say he will not take any pay for President. I’m not saying it will be a game-changer, but it will have an effect.
That said, there are issues coming to fore on the horizon, the teachers’ strike in Chicago, for example, that I don’t think Team Romney understands yet. That is entirely political theater, designed to bring a narrative about Obama that not coincidentally will also help Rahm Emanuel. We’ll see if Romney gets it in time. I’m still of the mind that Romney can win, and the debates will ultimately be the determining factor.
The media is bearing down hard on the public on Obama’s behalf right now, like a horny 21 year old flush with hormones on a 16 year virgin reeking of pheromones. The pressure to buy the story is immense right now, and it remains to be seen whether the electorate will hold their commitment, and they are committed to throwing this bum out. Can Obama depress the will and take our cherry? It’s uncertain at this time.
Interesting factoid:
Two modern presidents donated their salaries to charity, JFK and Herbert Hoover.
AB,
I agree that something is up with teachers strike. Romney spoke about it today, obama did not. MR is being set up is my hunch. they played MCain last time with the stock market chaos too.
Also, last time I outright said in Sept of 08, Obama is gonna win. the end. I did give my self a plethora of weasel words at the end this piece though. I”m not totally sold on my own thesis. UNLIKE Dukakis and Kerry – history is on Romney’s side in a the broadest sense…he ought to win. But the overall Obama machine is so very devious – everything from suing gallup, to 2 trashy white folk photos in one day, to the gay marriage head fake in May, to the birth control question way back in January. to maybe even the teacher’s strike. and many other examples this year. I’ve never been convinced that Romney’s team understood what was happening to them. M.R. HAD to destroy Obama himself to snuff out the Obama deviousness. I think it remains the only way. The hologram’s energy needs to be cut off….Drop the A-bomb to end the war early if you will.
AXE decamped to Chicago early for a reason. To map out every detail. It’s been impressive.
Interestingly MR did search and destroy in the primaries. One candidate after another was ripped to shreds via ads and accusations until he was left. ugly, but this actually impressed me and gave me hope that Obama would finally be vetted. Cain was destroyed over a weekend. Gingrich’s 1st wife appeared. Nightmare quotes from Santorum were played on a loop. MR carpet bombed on TV.
Also, though I’ve skidded to the edge of conspiracy land already in this comment (But it is all true. Obama’s people have set up one bogus talking point after another – often well in advance – and they’ve all helped.) I will add this: I’m convinced a very powerful faction wants Obama gone…many of the same people who wanted him in in the first place…I feel like they are the missing piece here. Have they given up? Or is something coming soon?
That IS an interesting factoid, Dan. Once Romney answers the question, can he get the JFK info into the infostream? That would help. Hoover, not so much.
John, I don’t know how much stock I’m willing to put into such conspiracy theories. The founders designed this system of balance well, and while it is possible for one faction–in this case big business interests–to gain the upper hand (and we’ve seen it happen before) we’ve also seen the balance in the system coming roaring back in to restore sanity. I think they’ve (BB) played their hand with two terms of Bush and one term of Obama. It may be time for the electorate to assert their authority once again.
Thinking of Dan’s data points, wouldn’t it be interesting to find that Romney is head-faking a Reaganesque narrative only to run a JFK-style campaign? It would fit…
I thought the same thing about the teachers strike, honestly I thought its be the topic of conversation on the blog today, but horse race is admittedly more fun to speculate on.
The fact that Rahm and Axelrod are both in the Windy city raises some eyebrows… But the first thing I thought was “this smells like the stock market thing with McCain in 2008″ but I didn’t want to read too much into it.
It seems kinda weird, but at the same time, if Romney wins and signs one of the 5 executive orders into law on day one that he outlines in his economic platform, it could affect their ability to collective bargain, so maybe they panicked…to his credit, Mitt responded in a way that is consistent with his platform, but that mightve been a trap.
I think itd be great if Romney pledges to donate his salary, itd show some depth of character to throw Obamas lack of character into sharp relief.
Dan & John, I’ve got the breakdown on how the strike narrative included in a post at P&L tomorrow. Link @ my name. Set to post 8:00 am EDT.
I think it’d be even more awesome if Romney is headfaking a Reaganesque campaign to run a Mayor Quimby-esque campaign.
Sounds like “head fake” is the new “eleven-dimensional chess”.
Seriously, if one is looking to run an esque campaign look no further than Diamond Joe Quimby… That guy has been re-elected, about a half a dozen times.
Haha! I ALWAYS think of that scene when Anthony starts talking dead voters.
I am in a democrat stronghold in Cook County. I realize that sounds odd. But there are Republican towns and villages in Cook County. Just not where I reside. Last time, even before the conventions were over, the Obama-Biden signs, bumper stickers, buttons, etc were everywhere. Not so this time – at least not yet. in fact, I saw my first obama 2012 button today on the commuter train. I don’t see Romeny lawn signs, stickers or buttons anywhere. I think it is a survival strategy, though. During the W daministration, my car was vandalized simply because I had a peace is patriotic sticker in the window. The “Mitt” sticker in my backdoor window – seen by only the few who use the back stairway – is a bold as I choose to be this time.
Where I work – in the city(Chicago) – there was a spirit an exuberance if you will, re: Obama the candidate. Now that he’s the president, there is next to nothing. No t-shirts, no scarves, no buttons -you’d never even know it is an election year- or the year to re-elect Obama.
While this isn’t a science-based poll, it does tell me something.
I drove up to the Ravinia Festival twice in the past couple of weeks. In 2008 the white guilt was everywhere. Signs, billboards, bumper stickers – everywhere. Not this year. I’m not certain people are not voting obama, I am pretty sure they aren’t advertising.
How interesting, Leslie. What you report surprises me (as much as it delights!).
I’d like to report a similar dearth of Obama signs and bumper stickers in my deep blue region. I’d say 90% less of the crap. That’s a BFD.
I’m not seeing many yard signs here in suburban Detroit, either. There’s an Obama headquarters right in the heart of a creative class yuppie neighborhood, a place where there were Obama signs aplenty in 2008. But even though these folks can literally walk around the block and pick up an Obama sign, they’re not doing it. I also took a bike ride through the heart of metro Detroit’s gay community and I counted exactly ONE Obama sign.
OK, so we understand the reasons why a Mitt supporter would hesitate to put out a yard sign. But there’s no social stigma attached to voting for Obama, unless you live in a heavily Republican neighborhood. So why no signs? Where are all the Kool-Aid drinkers? Why aren’t they showing the love?
Perhaps its a sign. But perhaps, it’s only an indicator of how PROUD people are about voting for obama. They may still pull the lever for him without bragging in advance ‘look how evolved I am!’
I’m not certain about that “proud” thing. The people I know who are voting for TehOne are doing so ONLY because they would not vote for a Repulbican not matter who might be running. I hope you are wrong, tamer.
You are setting aside the fact that Gore won his election. If you were around at the time you will understand why he tried to disassociate himself from Clinton, especially given that the mainstream press was portraying Gore as a liar (and Clinton demonstrably lied about Lewinski). It isn’t fair to blame Gore for not using Clinton in his campaign. But when has anyone ever been fair to Al Gore? After the takedown of Dan Rather, no one was going to press Bush on a DUI.
The key factor in all of these elections when it comes to media narratives and ability to counteract or build a counter-narrative, is who the mainstream media supports and that all goes back to who the entrenched corporate interests want to see in office. The amount of effort being expended to get an issue into print is not apparent to voters at our level. Without media cooperation, nothing is going to reach the voters and the media wanted Bush, didn’t want Gore, and want Obama this time, not Romney. I wish more people were asking why Wall Street loves Obama and spending less time on whether Romney is a nice guy or not. This blog is very concerned with predicting who is going to win and not very concerned with who ought to win or what this country needs — in my opinion. Is that because talking actual politics might disrupt the fragile harmony in a group where the main uniting factor is not shared values but a shared dislike of the incumbant?
” Is that because talking actual politics might disrupt the fragile harmony in a group where the main uniting factor is not shared values but a shared dislike of the incumbant?”
Nope, you’re wrong. It’s because the Blogmeister and most (if not all) the regulars here are political junkies, for whom dispassionate analysis of the horse race is pure deep-veined heroin. Hope that clears up the confusion.
Sally, “If I was around at the time”? God love ya. I was not only around I was well past the age where one becomes round. In 2000 Bill Clinton was the leaving office with well over 60% approval. He wojuld have won a 3rd term by a landslide. Gore was a moron – and I mean MORON – not to send him to Arkansas, Florida…This is not my amazing idea, it’s a view held by many….It’s also obvious. and yes the media had it on for Gore – as it does for Romney. It had it in for Clinton too in 1992. Clinton figured out – with Carville – how to trump the media. It wasn’t his personality, though that helped. It was called “The War Room” there’s a movie about it.
I know Gore won the vote. The election was stolen. However, Gore did not employ his one truly great asset: Bill Clinton. Obama knew better. Gore was a MORON. He’s also right about global warming…but the slide show movie kinda says it all. A slide show is who Gore is. Yes, I do blame Gore for not setting aside his stupid ego long enough to realize he needed Clinton to win. We all paid for that. Still are.
Hear hear to that last paragraph, John. Gore should’ve walked away with 2000 the way Bush walked away with ’88. His idiocy in spurning the Democrat’s greatest politician of our time was unforgivable.
Gore listened to Donna Brazile. That one-of-the-two-words was already trying to build her “new coalition” and unseat the Clinton clique for control of the Party.
TAmer, you hit the nail on the head. It was all about Brazile. Unforgiveable.
Whats also ironic is that Dukakis fired Brazille because she was leaking info about a potential mistress that GHW Bush had. I guess ultimately like she finally found the “right” Democrat to work with with Barry.
John, you have to remember who was running Al Gore’s campaign. And I do not think she wanted him to win. She did become buddy-buddy with Rove later.
djmm
I think Romney didn’t change the story because he likes the story. Bain is his big success and, like a former athlete’s big game, he likes people talking about it. He thinks it makes him look smart and tough and a winner, and in some ways it does. His supporters embrace it as proof he’ll create jobs, which of course is ridiculous but most people don’t understand jack about leveraged buyouts and private equity, which has nothing at all to do with job creation.
In general this is turning out to be a much less entertaining campaign than some expected. Just seems kind of dull and lackluster. The most exciting half hour of both conventions combined was a speech from a former President from more than a decade ago, who did little more than lie to help the current President who’s done a terrible job and most believe he loathes and mistrusts. I knew Clinton wasn’t going to zing Obama but it would’ve been a lot more fun around the water cooler if he had. And so far the most interesting post-convention gambit is a pizza guy bear hugging the President like a rag doll and the Vice President lap dancing a biker chick, which sounds a lot more entertaining than it was. Makes you almost long for Gary Hart’s monkey business and Bill’s bimbo parade; Biden’s so gross nobody even cares what’s in his lap. America’s becoming numbingly asexual.
One thing I’ve noticed that’s ticking away from previous campaigns John mentioned is the ever bigger volume of citizen commentary, with every mundane and uninformed typist convinced they’re smart, clever and right. The proliferation of social media, from blogs that provide room for longer pontificating to Facebook status updates that force more of a staccato burp, everybody with a keyboard fancies themselves the love child of Edward R. Murrow and Molly Ivins. Not sure it’s impacting the election, probably just more babble, but there it is.
In closing I’ll mention it was a famous German dentist who said cotton candy either kills your teeth or makes them stronger. And whenever someone comes at my teeth with a drill, I know I’m comforted if he has a heavy German accent.
Was it Dr. Neitzche DDS?
You got it. His sister was a Nazi and I love that Sweet Sue got the Marathon Man reference.
” the love child of Edward R. Murrow and Molly Ivins. ” That’s one worthy of Molly herself.
I think Mitt will win. Mostly because although he seems to be a nice guy personally, when it comes to business and politics he has proved to be a ruthless competitor. The guy is a shark. He has a game plan and he is not going to let Axelrod distract him.
Lol, love the Marathon Man reference.
I dunno’, I’m an out and proud mundane typist, people pontificate because they care about issues, some just have less experience or talent for the task.
Not on social media, never will be, but it’s not difficult to see that it has the potential for good, and for being a cesspool, just like all public forums before it. That’s the problem with free speech.
My point wasn’t about poor typing or pontificating, sophie.
The point is with all the easily accessible information and some actually insightful analysis available equally to everyone at the touch of a finger for no charge at all, which really is unprecedented in the history of human civilization, in general people remain poorly informed, severely biased, and, to boot, are often convinced that mediocrity is genius and brilliance is rude.
Wonder if our Founding Fathers would be surprised or not. I suspect they knew the depth of dumb in human populations and realized that for a Democracy to work, no matter how backward or advanced, its Constitution and structure has to be tightly woven.
zal, I agree that it is pretty simple to stay informed these days. The problem is that most of us are deeply cynical about all sources of information or more likely, disinformation, if you will. Both sides deny having said what they said, even though there is videotape of them saying it. The “you didn’t build that” is a perfect example of this dynamic. I don’t know how one takes such a simple statement ‘out of context’ but Axelrod manages to convince more than a few people that this is the case..It is not surprising to me how so many Americans are naive, given our poor sources of information. What is astounding is the pols’ glee in taking advantage of our naivete’ without even a backward glance at the wreckage they leave behind.
So much of this campaign is even beyond Fellini’s imagination, lately I feel as if I can’t breathe, for all the lies that are floating unchallenged in the atmosphere.. I hate and detest living under this nuclear cloud of deception and prevarication embodied in a false and shallow culture..
I support anyone who speaks out, even if poorly stated, at least they are thinking about something besides the latest fad in over the top sneakers. Unless of course they equate Obama with cool sneakers, which indeed, may be the case in some instances.
z
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Oh this p o s pc…the z’s represent my falling asleep after read my own stupid post.
er…readING..
Hi Sally!
Gore made a collosal tactical error in not only not utilizing Bill Clinton, but in actively distancing his campaign from Bill Clinton. Gores decision at the time was probably due to the fallout from the Lewinsky scandal, and hedging his bet thinking that he would seem to be taking a more moral high ground in his Presidency than Clinton had. It was an interesting bet, but the wring bet because ultimately voter’s for the most part didn’t care.
It’s hard to say what would’ve happened if Gore had just embraced the Clinton presidency, but it might’ve made the difference in one state, and that’d have been all he needed to do.
As far as Dan Rather, you’re right and you’re wrong. The Bush DUI story broke in the 2000 campaign and Gore didn’t push it enough, Dan Rather was fired from CBS for reporting on the Bush national guard story in 2004. So I would say that given what happened with Dan Rather in 2004, “journalists” and media companies could be loathe to report on negative stories against a sitting President unless they’re bullet proof.
Not using Clinton was just one of many colossal mistakes made by that frakked-up campaign.
Clinton told Gore that there was no truth to the Lewinsky scandal and after defending Clinton in public, Gore was left gently swinging in the breeze. Given that Gore is a serious person with a family values bent, it is not surprising that he would have distanced himself. He was not the master politician, willing to sacrifice everything to get elected, by personality or character. It is a virtue but also a tragic flaw. There was no way he could use Clinton in his campaign under the circumstances. I personally admire Gore and Clinton both, for different reasons, but it makes no sense to criticize him for something so distant from possibility at the time.
I don’t consider politics a game. Real peoples’ survival is at stake. Today I visited Dachau and heard the guide explain to a group of clueless tourists how Hitler came to power. Today’s youth do not know that he was elected during economic times similar to our own. The guide said that people voted for change because they were unemployed and desperate. He talked about the suspension of due process with imprisonment for indeterminate time without charges, the spying on mail and telephone conversations, the private security employed by political parties (which became the SS) and the guide said that these things do not happen in most elected democracies. It made me very sad. So I cannot be a political junkie because too much is at stake.
“Given that Gore is a serious person with a family values bent, it is not surprising that he would have distanced himself.”
This is funny. Wonder if Tipper would agree? Gore was and always will be an insufferable prig…and a hypocritical one to boot.
Tipper and Al Gore were both sanctimonious insufferable prigs.
That didn’t stop me from voting for him and I still believe he won.
I don’t really care what a candidate’s personal values are other than how it reflects on how they’d do their job. Obama is a narissistic douche, but if he was a narcissistic douche that was working his ass off every day to make the country better, I’d overlook it. But he isn’t. For all of Clinton’s personal failings, he gave the impression that he took the job seriously and he worked dilligently at it.
I think the problem we are facing as a culture is not that we’re going to get some sadistic demagogue in power and end up finding ourselves in a similar to post WW1 Germany, but that we consistently seem to place value on feeling over thought and truth and law… and we project the ideals or fears of our feelings onto these basically “characters” who are running for office.
We want our politicians to be Reagan-esque, JFK-esque and in Obama’s case a pantomime of MLK oratory and then we think that’s enough.. the fact that it’s spilled over into politics isn’t super surprising because it pervades our culture overall.. two of the top rated shows on TV are basically karaoke… we don’t demand greatness, we demand goodness, which isn’t the same thing, and settle for the familiarity and reminder of greatness. That’s what was brilliant about Colbert’s coin of the phrase “truthiness” because it’s based on the feeling of truth or the patina of truth, but accepting the BS underneath it.
“people voted for change because they were unemployed and desperate. He talked about the suspension of due process with imprisonment for indeterminate time without charges, the spying on mail and telephone conversations, the private security employed by political parties …. these things do not happen in most elected democracies.”
They do when the electorate is uninformed and easily swayed by demagoguery. And, in case no one noticed, all those things have already happened here.
FTR, it’s still essentially tied:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-and-romney-close-in-poll-among-likely-voters/2012/09/10/e57318ea-fb79-11e1-b153-218509a954e1_story.html?hpid=z1
Hi Dan — it that a THX1138 reference?
Yes Sally, and you are my new BFF for catching it
Talking about past scandals, look at the present one starring the msm, who else?
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/11/ramirez-media-bias-toward-obama-a-national-scandal/
…fwiw…
http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/
I would be curious if anyone who actually analyzes polls has any information or feedback on how accurate…or distorted…the polls were in the recent Wisconsin Scott Walker recall?
as i seem to recall the MSM was trying to convince us then that Walker was going to be beat…and low and behold…he won comfortably…(not talking about the issue here, but the media and polls)
sometimes saying it is so over and over again…still doesn’t make it so (making room for those secret, undisclosed votes that will show up)
I only bring this up because the same thing (brainwashing) is going on now…that ole ‘narrative’ thing and rigged polls we have been discussing…
eh, moononp?
PPP, a Dem Party shill, had Walker and Barrett tied with one week to go. In that same poll, PPP had obama up by +7. The obama figure was widely cited by the media whores, even after the rest of the poll was proven terribly wrong.
good find, conner43…if we had more ramirez’s maybe we could shame the MSM to do their job…honestly
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one last thing on the Clinton thing that stings even more…for me…today is Sept 11…Romney and O are not politicizing today…but Bill is in Florida at FIU in Miami tonight…Bill had a perfect out…but no, He is the one doing the politics today for O… (i) can’t rationalize that one…
Done making excuses for Bill Clinton: he’s being a pathetic fool, campaigning for a guy who tarred him with the racist brush and trashed his wife. (And, no, nobody should get over that.) I get his supporting O at the Convention as a nod to party loyalty, but actively campaigning for him in the battleground states falls in the b.j. category. Beyond the pale. Weak, narcissistic fool. The bow was emblematic of this ridiculous state of affairs.
Maybe Obama scored Clinton some primo-choom?
As was evident when he nominated Obama at the convention, provoking many of us to have a negative visceral reaction to that speech
NES, I don’t understand what led you to expect something else from Clinton. He hasn’t changed one bit since he first entered the national scene (and likely was always this way). Why did you think they called him Slick Willy?
Yah, good point, Zal. I expected him to have a human response. I forgot he’s a politician. My stupid.
Here’s the thing, Zal: I assumed WJC was a fierce fighter, a proud man…not a genuflector and a pussy. After the slime attacks by O on Hillary and him, he owed O a sound thrashing, not a warm embrace. Alternatively, the less dramatic route would’ve been to quietly say “thanks, but no thanks” when O came calling for support.
It was a human response. There are different kinds of humans. And in the US today there are a great many people, more than a society can absorb and remain healthy, with disorders the same as or similar to Bill Clinton’s. In America today, they’re the ones who have and are rising to the top, in politics, in business, the media, and throughout the Internet. There’re good books on the subject, one of the most readable and direct is called Snakes in Suits, written by Robert Hare, and published half a dozen or so years ago. Being able to spot them isn’t all that hard once you figure out who they are, and being able to identify them can be invaluable, but it’s practically impossible to convince anybody who’s being taken in by it that this is what they’re being drawn to. These people are the ones in the room with the most appeal, they need to be liked and popular and feel powerful, and ultimately they can be very destructive to the people who get taken in by them.
In the end, it’s all about Bill.
Of course it is. And to be fair, he’s part of a very large crowd, in that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/11/obama-netanyahu-meeting_n_1874814.html
So now Obama ‘can’t’ meet with Netanyahu..Isn’t that part of his job ?
Saw that. Hillary has time for him though.
Obama is a heap of steaming dung.
I just tweeted: “It’s 3 AM, Mr. President. Do you know how our embassies and consulates in the Middle-East are faring?”
John, this may be the Black Swan. Islamists are overruning US diplomatic assets and desecrating our flags in Egypt and Libya. How long before Pakistanis, Iranians, Tunisians, etc., follow suit? Not long. (Note, the black Islamic flags in evidence are al-Qaedi faves; the usual Islamic flag is green; so, at least there’s indication of al-Qaeda fingerprints.) That this is happening on 9/11 is a BFD — and not a coinkydink.
I thought the same thing right off NES. We’ll see – Our embassy essentially sided with the attackers, which is a desperate attempt to contain the situation. A consulate in Libya was attacked as well.
And an American at the consulate in Libya was killed.
Unforgettable’;
http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2012/09/towers-in-twilight.html#comment-form
Well, the 2016 movie has finally gotten under the thin skin that is this President and his campaign:
http://www.deadline.com/2012/09/exclusive-2016-obamas-america-filmmaker-reacts-to-presidents-slam-looking-for-network-to-air-before-election-says-mainstream-media-refusing-coverage/
Oh – and more of your taxpayer stimulus $s at work. I admit, I fail to see why a company developing holograms of dead rappers to sing at alternative music festivals shouldn’t rely on solely private funding, but then I guess I’m just not as smart as Biden, Plouffe, Goulsbee, Krugman, Geithner, et al. who assure me that without those billions spent on these stimulative efforts, we would have been so much worse off than we currently are:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/firm-brought-you-holo-tupac-dies-less-year-after-ipoing-taking-millions-taxpayer-subsidies-it