11 notes on the upcoming VP debate.
1. The assumption of some on the Right that Biden will be a dunderheaded fool who’ll get spanked by Ryan is false. Chances are very good that Biden will be anywhere from “just fine” to “quite good.”
2. To the chagrin of many on the Left, Ryan will not come across as a nerdy liar with abs. He will do well, and often be charming and likable.
3. Biden’s role model for this debate is Mitt Romney circa last Wednesday. He’ll come out punching.
4. Sensitive to the criticism Jim Lehrer has received Martha Raddatz will make a point of keeping things under control. Both men will be reasonably well-behaved.
5. Biden will say “47 percent” in 57 percent of his answers.
6. Paul Ryan will not discuss his abs.
7. At some point Biden will try to “Lloyd Bentsen” Paul Ryan…. I knew Jack Lalanne, I worked with Jack Lalanne, You’re no Jack Lalanne….
8. The person most likely to commit a gaffe is…..wait for it….Paul Ryan. Go ahead, slam me for this one. I’m not saying Ryan will commit a horrible gaffe, I’m saying that the one thing Biden is likely to be hyper conscious of is keeping his tongue in check.
9. Paul Ryan’s prime task is to come across with gravitas. He has it on budget matters (whether you like his numbers or not). But on camera he can read like an overgrown boy scout at times. He must anchor his energy on stage. Espcially when answering questions about vouchers and medicare. He must appear to be a man when giving these answers, not an earnest college student.
10. Ryan will be cornered on abortion.
11. Unlike the last debate there will be no clear winner. Much of the media will declare Biden the winner because they are desperate to, and chances are good Biden will be senatorial enough to “win.” But whatever happens Thursday night it won’t matter 48 hours later.
Okay.. now you…how will the VP Debate go.
If honesty ruled, Ryan would come out shirtless and Biden would carry a highball.
Haha!
ROFL. Jay, great one!
And it’d be more fun and a better show for it.
Big fan of honesty!
Hilarious image. Leave it to Jay to give us the humor we so desperately need!
Biden would be carrying a highball and also shirtless. Or maybe he’d be wearing a jacket, shirt, tie and shorts..since he was behind a podium and all.
For some reason Biden doesn’t raise my hackles in the same way that Obama does, probably because I’ve always just dismissed him as the financial bagman for the Obama machine… those MBNA lobbyists have deep pockets.
I think that John’s right, Ryan has to show gravitas..and I think the optics are going to favor Biden tremendously.. unless there are major gaffes I think Ryan is going to have a tough time, unless he’s able to keep the conversation focused on budget stuff, which is his strongest talking point…when Ryan isn’t talking about that stuff, he’s diminished.
Biden will probably be the guinea pig on the strategy of how Obama will attack Romney in the 2nd presidential debate. He can afford to look ridiculous, Obama can’t afford to look ridiculous again.
For me thus far the surprise has been how Romney was able to look “better” in comparison to Obama in the last debate and more suprisingly that the media was wiling to cover the fact that Obama not only lost so badly, but that the whole brand persona failed.
I think in terms of perception Biden will probably “win” but dont think that it matters all that much. The big story after this will be the lead in to the next debate with Obama/Romney.
I’m excited for the VP debate just because I think Biden is basically Obama’s rodeo clown…
http://www.theonion.com/articles/biden-says-life-better-than-it-was-4-years-ago-but,29477/
There is a 47% chance that Biden will have had a stiff drink before the debate and it will show.
IMO, the right is way over-hyping Ryan and way underestimating Biden, who *did* manage to get himself elected to 36 years in the US Senate before becoming VP — he’s not going to come out there with the kind of contempt & “too good to be here so I’m not even engaging you” attitude that Obama did at the Denver debate, even if his “facts” have little basis in reality — that’s half the battle right there (i.e., doesn’t much matter what you say as long as you deliver it with confidence). Now, I don’t think Biden is going to blow Ryan out of the water the way Romney did to Obama, and I do think Ryan will do just fine, but as the saying goes: Semper senectus perfidiaque supra iuventutem facultatemque triumphant. (Old age and treachery will always triumph over youth and skill).
Final analysis: Each side will declare victory, the MSM will declare it a draw *but* also declare that Biden did enough to stop the bleeding to the Obama/Biden ticket as if the VP debate ever mattered (in fact, the two most famous VP debates — at least in my memory — are (1) Lloyd Benson v. Dan Quayle (“You’re no JFK!”); and (2) GHWB v. Geraldine Ferraro (“Don’t patronize me!”). Both VPs won those debates, IMO, yet their tickets lost the GE).
True, the Right is way over-hyping Ryan and underestimating Biden. But, I also think the Left is mistaken if they think Joe’s genial-uncle or hyper-partisan-attack-dog acts will go down well; they won’t.
The optics will be interesting, perhaps more so than the substance: the old vs. the new; early-Baby-Boomer vs. GenX. I’ve often thought the Obama administration now seems old and tired, like yesterday’s news. Joe epitomizes that optic, in my opinion.
NES — you’re right, optics count for a lot. Clinton/Gore definitely had the “youth & energy” vibe that helped them; Romney/Ryan ticket may have the same thing this year. IMO, it isn’t only Biden that gives the ticket the “yesterday’s news” vibe compared to Ryan — have you seen Obama lately? He looks like cr*p — and not just at the debate & not just because he stopped with the “Just for Men” for his hair. Romney looks much more youthful & energetic than Obama — and he’s 14 years older! His wife, Ann, is 63 years old, btw (I swear, I thought she was 10 years younger than that). It’s enough to make you give up all alcohol, caffeine & drugs.
It’s enough to make you give up all alcohol, caffeine & drugs.
I agree with much of what you’ve said, but let’s not go crazy here…..
“I’m in it for the sex, drugs, and rock ‘n’ roll. So long as there’s still sex and drugs, I suppose I can do without the rock ‘n’ roll.”
Chit Tamer, if you could just give up the drugs, you’d make a good Mormon. Sex and rock ‘n roll sit quite well with that community. All the Mormons I’ve met eff like rabbits and can really shake their booty on the dance floor.
“We knew Obama was a fraud before it was cool.” Can the truth become even truer over time ?
In this case, it did. Kudos, John.
OT but scanned MSNBC this a.m., several members of the cast of Ship of Fools were featured, almost all had the ‘just stab me now’ look. It was nearly worth watching, just to see that.
In 2008 both Biden and Palin did well in the debate. Biden’s best line was “there is no such thing as clean coal.” Of course, the MSM whores declared Palin a ninny.
I expect decent, not stellar, performances by both Ryan and Biden this time. Biden is in trouble if he has been instructed to be too nasty, hence desperate. Ryan’s achilles heel is appearing heartless behind all those stats. A fine line for both.
Then gape in amazement as the ‘tie’ is declared a smashing victory for Biden by the MSM, who go on to claim it will right the capsized obama ship. Will the pollsters indulge that narrative?
I agree. Said better than I could have.
I think if it’s a tie (and I think it will be), the non-MSM audience, especially the Indys, may chalk it up as a win for Ryan. He’ll be perceived to have gone toe-to-toe with a former senior Senator and VP, and lived to tell the tale.
All Ryan has to do is not stink up the joint. Then it’s a wash, affecting the race not one iota.
I have this feeling that Ryan is going to spend some effort rebutting the Obama campaign’s attack on Romney’s honesty.
Whatever happens in and to this debate, the spectacle of the O Team pinning its hopes on a boozy old bozo is a sure sign that hope and change have left the building.
Well put!
i am hoping biden drinks a ton before that debate, or at least he has a hangover
You guys know that Biden’s a teetotaler, right?
What’s truly scary is that he *can’t* blame his occasionally bizarre remarks on booze.
Based on ‘tells”, I am fairly confident Biden is an alcoholic. But he’s also a ‘walking drunk’, and functions quite well inebriated.
Trouble is, OFA’s been drying him out for a week. Will we witness the “Bender Effect”?
The O Team is unravelling (or maybe they’re busy rappelling out of the Whtie House). No one has yet driven by to accuse this site of drunken bumophobia.
I think people are over-hyping this debate generally. I actually think it might be more boring than we had initially thought with a lot of #s and wonkishness. Great for policy wonks, but I bet a lot of Americans will start to tune out pretty quickly. I think they’ll watch initially just b/c the Romney/Obama debate was so incredibly lop-sided, but I doubt they’ll stay for the whole thing.
After all, can most people at all remember VP debates from the past, other than a couple of memorable lines like Bentsen’s “you’re no JFK” or Adm. Stockdale – “who am I; what am I doing here.” Anyone at all remember Cheney/Lieberman or Cheney/Edwards? All I remember is that Cheney came across like Darth Mor, Edwards did much less well than a successful trial lawyer should have and it had absolutely zero effect on the race – like most VP debates.
I think they’ll both come across as smart and sane and, as I mentioned, relatively boring. I do think Ryan has a slight edge because he’s just had much more experience in recent years engaged in real, tough debates on budgets and #s on the national stage and Biden hasn’t had to do that outside of closed door rooms. (And, Biden may have had a long career in Senate, but come on – he got elected from Delaware. I don’t think anyone even ran against him. And, he never got anywhere when he ran for President and debated then. Plus, Ryan’s been in the rough and tumble house for 18 years, not exactly a short time). But, a slight edge is only going to mean – ok “they tied” yawn.
Has anyone been asking friends, neighbors, etc what they expect?
My friends who support Obama think that Joe Biden is going to vindicate “The Changeling” with a rip-roaring ass-whooping leaving Ryan (and by extension, Romney) in a quivering heap, friends who support Romney think that Ryan is going to win hands down by being respectful of Biden and come across smarter than him, and everyone expects the MSM to call it a big win for Obama putting him back in the game.
All of them plan to watch it because they want to see it for themselves rather than depend on the media for analysis
Post Watergate, we used to take the ‘one heartbeat away’ thingy kind of seriously. Not that Nixon was done in by a heartbeat, but earlier, Kennedy certainly was. . If at least a fraction of the audience still buys that, Joe is toast. If an Obama second term is as plagued by scandal and the attendant endless hearings, as imo, it will be, there’s at least some food for thought there. Plus, O looks like hell these days, drugs and cigs are catching up with him.
P.S. Does anyone here think that Hillary and O are slouching towards a Mexican standoff over Benghazi ? She’s not going to crawl under the bus voluntarily, Bill will see to that.
I think Obama knows that if he tries to push her under the bus, he’ll no longer be able to trust what Bill will do in retaliation. Big Dawg is still one of the biggest media draws there is, and Obama will watch his step if he’s smart. A big part of me hopes he’s stupid…
I think Hillary is protected from blowback on this until after the election because Obama Administration will do everything they can to keep this out of the news until election regardless. Then my hunch is one of the following:
1.Obama loss – Hillary probably goes under the bus for Benghazi. Obama won’t allow her to go out gracefully if he’s going out as a loser. Barry seems like the type that if he’s going down with the ship he’s taking as many people down with him as his narcissistic ego will allow.
2. Obama win – Kerry becomes SoS in 2nd term (Hillary said one term and done) and it continues to get swept under the rug as the news cycle will become Obama wins historic 2nd term, holidays, football, etc. Hopefully there is good windsurfing in Libya.
what i think would be hilarious is if it ends up like the romney debate where it isn’t debatable that ryan just won the thing in the first 20 minutes. if biden does screw up by being over confident, talk about a tragic comedy. what if the october surprise is yet another undeniable debate win, and by the vp candidate who isn’t with the incumbent. it may not be based in any sort of fact but what if it does end up with ryan winning? what if october is just not ob’s month? which is funny because it is all he has left before the election.
I hope Libya and Benghazi comes up in the debate. Because, I’m really glad now we know there was NO protest at the consulate in Benghazi at all, but rather it was a coordinated attack from the outset by a small group of men with sophisticated weaponry, that we spent weeks undermining our first amendment principles and having a raging debate about whether the first amendment was “passe” because this administration outright lied that some obscure you tube video was to blame for the attack.
The lying and incompetence and possible criminality here has been breathtaking. First, this administration – unfortunately, along with HRC – left our people in Libya sitting ducks in a known high risk situation by all accounts. Next, they plucked some poor benighted wanna be filmaker out of obscurity for no reason, made him, his family and everyone who was in his video a marked target probably for the rest of their lives and then jail him for a “probation violation” that no one would have been sent back to prison for. Then, because they blamed this video, they inflamed Muslims who would otherwise never have heard of this guy and his video if our own administration hadn’t found it and used is as CYA into engaging in violent protests against our other embassies. Then, they went on a tear lecturing all of us about religious tolerance which apparently means we can slander any religion as long as it’s not the “religion of the prohet” or some such nonsense – when they knew all along they were lying.
Someone, and probably a number of people, seriously need to go to jail for a long time over this and let the chips fall where they may.
Why do I keep seeing the evil troll, Jarrett, as the original spider of this tangled web ?
You just envy Valjar’s peruke.
Moderator Raddatz has priors:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/10/Flashback-Moderator-Martha-Raddatz-Stunned-John-Silber-s-Campaign-for-MA-Governor-in-1990-Debate
Now I remember her.
Tamer, you caught me again. I saw one photo where it must have been out for a powdering and dusting, because Valjar looked almost as follicle- challenged as Biden..
Any hope on a Shelby Fluffy debate? I could use some Shelby.
Hear hear!
Must see embedded video of one of the slain in Benghazi.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/10/video-mother-of-state-dept-worker-killed-in-benghazi-begs-white-house-to-stop-stonewalling-her/
I’m ashamed of the way our gov’t has handled this matter.
PS: nothing we don’t know, but note what the bereaved mom has to say about Obama’s inadequate and detached hug.
Sigh…I meant to say the vid of “the MOTHER of one of the slain in Benghazi….”
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Agreed that the gov’t's handling of Benghazi is disgraceful, but surprised ? Hardly