Below is my electoral college map as of Friday night. And let me tell you I’m squeamish about a third of it. It’s also based on my hunch TODAY. Thursday was different. Saturday may change my mind again. Qualifiers:
- Cheating. There’s no question in my mind that Obama’s side will attempt to cheat this time if they can get away with it. The Prog screaming about GOP voter suppression is, and always has been, playing defense with a forceful offense. It’s entirely possible they’ll get away with it.
- Sandy. I believe on balance Sandy has helped Obama slightly. Ever so slightly. Ever, ever so slightly. From a purely political stand point: The horrifying images coming out of New Jersey and Statin Island are not what matters here. Politically, what matters is that Janet Napolitano is not Michael Brown. Obama was on the ground, not in a plane. Bloomberg is more likely than Obama to take the fall as the days pass.
Finally, numerous guests on the show and friends of this blog are committed to the idea that a sizable win for Romney is coming. Their reasons are solid, logical. I can only add that I just don’t see a substantial Romney win…yet. At this point in 1980 the race was still close. Over the final days the dam broke for Reagan. I’m not feeling any cracks in the dam this time. Subjective. I know.
Predicting this thing has made me nauseous throughout the Fall. As of this moment I’ll go with Romney by a whisker in the ECV and by 2% in the popular voter. But if Obama wins I’ll not be surprised. What’s your take?