Below is my electoral college map as of Friday night. And let me tell you I’m squeamish about a third of it. It’s also based on my hunch TODAY. Thursday was different. Saturday may change my mind again. Qualifiers:
- Cheating. There’s no question in my mind that Obama’s side will attempt to cheat this time if they can get away with it. The Prog screaming about GOP voter suppression is, and always has been, playing defense with a forceful offense. It’s entirely possible they’ll get away with it.
- Sandy. I believe on balance Sandy has helped Obama slightly. Ever so slightly. Ever, ever so slightly. From a purely political stand point: The horrifying images coming out of New Jersey and Statin Island are not what matters here. Politically, what matters is that Janet Napolitano is not Michael Brown. Obama was on the ground, not in a plane. Bloomberg is more likely than Obama to take the fall as the days pass.
Finally, numerous guests on the show and friends of this blog are committed to the idea that a sizable win for Romney is coming. Their reasons are solid, logical. I can only add that I just don’t see a substantial Romney win…yet. At this point in 1980 the race was still close. Over the final days the dam broke for Reagan. I’m not feeling any cracks in the dam this time. Subjective. I know.
Predicting this thing has made me nauseous throughout the Fall. As of this moment I’ll go with Romney by a whisker in the ECV and by 2% in the popular voter. But if Obama wins I’ll not be surprised. What’s your take?
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I agree 100% with your assessment. I am also concerned there will be massive fraud to Obama’s benefit. But, I think they will have only targeted a few swing states – Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Nevada. I think it won’t be enough in Florida, and the results won’t surprise anyone in Nevada. But, I believe Wisconsin and Iowa will come through for Romney making up for the stolen state of Ohio.
My main concern is Virginia, but I’m holding out hope for Pennsylvania.
G,
the only positive thing i can say about the states you mention, Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Nevada…is that all of them have Republican governors…so that should help in keeping an eye over cheating and fraud issues…especially if there are recounts…
I am leaning in your direction because there are factors we hardly hear the MSM discuss at all that could push Mitt over the top for the winm , they are:
…the evangelical voters will come out and vote for Mitt…ralph reed has been organizing that for a while…and the media has been telling us they won’t vote for Mitt because he is a mormon
…we don’t hear much about the tea party these days but they changed the House in 2010 and could be an under the radar factor for Mitt…
…many ‘registered democrats’ are now being counted as voting towards O, but will actually cross over and vote for Mitt…I personally know of quite a few…
…many of the independent voters and republican voters that crossed over and voted for O in 2008 will be voting for Mitt this time…have not heard of any McCain voters switching to O
****************************************
I am also worried about the cheating, especially when it comes to absentee ballots…
I am cautiously optimistic and hopeful…but this is damn nervewracking…
I think that map is right except that OH goes for Romney. I’m not nervewracked at all. I even think that PA will likely go for Romney. I am taking a trip on 11/6; will go to sleep without checking results and wake up 11/7 with a new outlook on our country.
I agree that Ohio falls to Romney, but think Obama hangs on barely to pa. Having said that the energy and crowds Romney is drawing is impressive. Think Obama will have to cheat on a massive scale to pull this off.
Im seeing it as a blowout for Romney or squeak for Obama.
All those years I laughed at possibility and then was horrified with results of Reagan the Reagan and then bush bush. Seemed impossible. Now all those voters who did that are waking up again and my guess is strongly motivated by the same thing– they feel that pull towards America’s “image” I think. They let themselves be pushed into Obama for some odd reason. Now I think he tarnished their image of their country. So I think they will wake up and shake them off. They (sorry for all the “they”- but it’s not really my taste) like strong posture for America in defense. Benghazi puts a sour note there. So I think the country will go “enough already” with Obama’s double talk and lousy results– and go big for Romney.
However, I could be wrong and the beaten down masochists of my ex party will slog to the pols and squeak Obama in. I so do hope not (I need a change)! See Obama??? Hope and change!!!!!
It is Benghazi ! Obama is Benghazi! Every facet of the Obama regime is illustrated in Benghazi. Benghazi was Obama’s last act, which is a complete and open analysis of the practices and guidelines of the Obama regime, . close………, close close, to a historic landslide! If we lose, forget it Jake, it’s Benghazi! For everyone!
I did the RCP map thing, and I came up with Romney winning by 4 electoral votes.
I think the danger of cheating is greatest in the states with early voting. Early voting makes projection harder thus providing a cover for any big surprises. Plus, when you have voting going on for weeks like here in NC, the election is in effect “open” the entire time. Machines and data are put to bed night after night and sit there, easy pickings for hacking. (This is why I am so against early voting.)
Stand up. Be counted.
I did, Zal.
Pravda:
OPINION: Polls favor Obama
“As always, the polls could be wrong, and Romney could still win. But the polls would have to be overwhelmingly, systematically, catastrophically wrong in multiple states for that to happen.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/where-we-are-with-three-days-left/2012/11/03/b8176532-25b2-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html?hpid=z1
“Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that. ”
-Homer Simpson
If Dems enjoy as great a turnout as in 2008, then those polls are correct. I think not.
I agree with you, John. I won’t be surprised if Obama wins either, though if he does win I think it will be very close. IMO, it will either be a Romney landslide or an Obama squeaker. Which is why, as a Virginia voter, I will buck up and vote Romney, even though I’d rather vote Stein.
I know that’s a real sacrifice for you, and I just want to say I respect your dedication to country before self. It is awe-inspiring, actually. Thank you.
I’ll vote twice for Stein in CA, once for you gxm. LOL.
Thanks. I appreciate the camaraderie and support both here and at THC. You all are a wonderful mix of people and ideologies with the common ground of open minds and curiosity. You’ve kept me sane throughout all this.
Thank you, gxm. Very selfless of you. As you well know, the future cannot belong to those who think the First Amdmt. doesn’t include the right to “slander the prophet of Islam.”
I think Romney gets PA and OH too for a 315 to 223 blowout.
Considering the metro NYC devastation, NY is going to be closer than you would think. In my neck of NYS I saw my first Obama sign yesterday.. and I saw several hand drawn Romney lawn signs because they were out of official lawn signs at the local republican HQ. However, I am in a purple section of NYS 45 minutes from a city (where I have not seen even one Obama sign), and 15 minutes from deep red farm country where all you see is Romney signs. I also think NJ is going to be close. I am not sure how many will be rushing to the polls when they have no food, water or electricity or heat them warm, and the metro NYC area represents a lot of Obama popular votes.
I think Romney beats the crud out of Obama in the popular vote too. The last think hurricane Sandy did was help Obama.
*the last thing* not think
Agree with Anne – Romnye will break 300, more than likely 315.
They are now allowing vote-by-e-mail in NJ, so NJ may not be that close. Unlike others, I am not worried about this development because a) NJ is already blue, and b) the voting rolls are limited and will be cross-checked. There is very little room for anonymous or unregistered vote tampering there. The chaos is such that it is unlikely that a coordinated effort could swamp people who won’t vote by e-mail either. I could even imagine a scenario where it’s a trap to catch wholesale Dem cheaters. Christie is quite shrewed, and I wouldn’t put it past him.
Romney will take Ohio.
Your words to Odin’s ear.
Your map looks good, but here are my thoughts:
Romney will win Minnesota. It’s been trending red and is lily-white. Remember, their blue governor is the first one in 20 years and he won a populist split with a strong third party candidate who broke double digits. They will break for Romney in a race now down to 1 point. I’m not sure which it will be, but either Ohio or Pennsylvania will break for Romney, I suspect Ohio. If my thinking is correct, that brings Romney closer to 305-307 territory, which is right on par with my around-300 predictions of a few weeks ago. We’ll find out in just 3 more days.
I live in OH & going by the yard signs I tend to agree with you. There are alot of Romney -Ryan yard signs out there, including some in yards that also have signs for downticket Dems. Some yards have signs for the downticket Dems but no bambam signs. Of course some yards have bambam signs in them, but it’s nothing like it was in 2008., Either the Dem voters are embarassed, or not all of them aren’t voting for bambam this time out
The paucity of obama yard signs and bumper stickers is astonishing. I live in dark blue MD, and am amazed at how few obama signs are there. Have seen 2 obama bumper stickers, and 1 romney sticker in the last month. I visited my sister in ct in oct, and again amazed at the shortage of signs. There is a sulleness about obama supporters. Its amazing!
I don’t think it is possible for romney to win pa and lose ohio, since ohio trends a couple more points republican. so 3 scenarios for romney: win both, lose both, or lose pa and win ohio. (I belive the third scenario is most likely).
I see a Romney victory as a broadcast deprogramming of obama cult members. If barry wins (and he only can by cheating), they’ll see it as a vindication of their cult beliefs, and the New Fascist Left will be intolerable.
The only house I have seen with an O sign in the yard still had its’ fake wreath up from last Christmas..I also saw two O signs on Palm Beach, that’s our O, the corporate hero of the downtrodden Elites.
Delightful:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/fashion/canada-would-welcome-election-losers.html?hp
obamabots and the nutroots crowd (dailykos) should consider moving to canada if the messiah loses. their move will raise the average IQ of this country, as well as make this country a better (and less vitriolic) place to live in.
Speaking of vitriol, this from an Ohio independent voter:
“The political conversations have been more hostile and people have been taking that physically out on each other,” Littel said. “All the cars with Romney bumper stickers have been keyed.”
Anyone else think that this just like every previous election is all just smoke and mirrors to keep us occupied and the “numbers” have already been worked out?
Yes, DE.
Okay, call this deeply cynical, but is it at all possible that both Christie and Bloomberg felt more than a little threatened to either endorse O, or give good photo ops with him, in exchange for increased aid?
You can never be too cynical when you are dealing with the Chicago crowd. It is no coincidence that the past 2 governors of Illinois went to jail. They are rats and scum. They are now trying to bring Chicago politics across the nation — the fight against voter id, patronage of illegals are symptoms of this.
Yes.
Matt Stoler hits another bulls-eye.
“It is remarkable to see the level to which Obama defenders have sunk. Let’s start with a basic problem – why is Obama in a tight race? Mitt Romney is more caricature than candidate, a horrifically cartoonish plutocrat whose campaign is staffed by people that allow secret tapings of obviously offensive statements. The Republican base finds Romney uninspiring, and Romney has been unable to provide one good reason to choose him except that he is not the incumbent. Yet, Barack Obama is in a dog fight with this clown. Why? It isn’t because a few critics are writing articles in places like Salon. The answer, if you look at the data, is that Barack Obama has been a terrible President and an enemy to progressives. Unemployment is high. American household income since the recovery started in 2009 has dropped 5%. Poverty has increased substantially. Home equity – the main store of wealth for the middle class – has dropped by $5-7 trillion, in contrast to the increase in financial asset values held by Obama’s friends and donors. And this was done explicitly through Obama’s policies.”
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/03/why_is_the_left_defending_obama/?source=newsletter
Great article. It helped to shore up why I am where I am politically these days.
False liberalism is more damaging to liberals than staunch conservatism could ever be.
Spot on! Great piece, LonelyLiberal.
I tried repeatedly, among supposed liberals here and elsewhere, to make the point this past week that we need a monumental shift of our resources from defense spending to restructuring our infrastructure, and this is the time to push it — it was met almost universally with crickets.
From near the end of the article you linked:
Worth repeating: ” Voting third party is a way of showing, to yourself and your community, that you consider Barack Obama an opponent, and that you oppose his policy.”
After spending much time thinking about all of it, I’ve landed on voting for Jill Stein as well. I’d always believed that I needed to vote ‘for’ a candidate and until 2008 was able to do so. This year, the best I can do is add my voice to dissent against two lousy choices, so Jill Stein it is. May her numbers surprise people in both parties.
It was the drones and the kill list that made up my mind.
Yes, the economy is beginning to improve but Obama has been Bush 111 when it comes to eroding civil liberties and unconstitutional violence.
Romney/Ryan would be worse.
Third party means I can sleep at night- a little bit.
Thank you, Zal. I almost posted the latter quotes as well, but I figured you might.
I’m flirting with multiple de-friendings today by pressing my liberal face friends on their acceptance of the drones.
On the sign front: Brother and I went to the Nixon lib. Today – am there now in fact. Picked him up in Hollywood – please note i saw 2 Romney signs in hollywood. Shocked.
Obama stuff is around but not like 08 at all.
Also the Nixon library is okay. Reagan is better. Must get to Clinton somehow.
I went to the Clinton museum last fall – or was it the fall before that? Anyway, It is simply amazing to see his daily schedule, the workload he handled, the work of Hillary and the commitment to this nation they demonstrated despite the persistent attacks of the Right wingers. The building itself reminded me of a giant trailer. but perhaps i’m just not into modern architecture.I hope you can get there. I couldn’t find anyone who wanted to take that trip so I went alone. I loved it anyway.
p.s. (I love good architecture regardless of the era.)
hi john,
There is an oval office replica and a replica of the cabinet room where you can sit in the chair that says President on it. The trailer comment is funny because it is how the building shaped. But it does have a lot of natural light because of tons of windows. It was amazing to me how he had a huge section dedicated to hillary. There was also letters handwritten to the clintons and from the clintons that i loved. They had all of his saxaphones on display too. Anyway, it is the only presidential library I have been too, but i loved it. the only thing i didn’t love was that the gift shop was in a totally separate building which we couldn’t find somewhere else in little rock, so i couldn’t get any memorabillia for say my mom or others in my family who love the guy (or myself 
. It is a great addition for little rock. it does feel like a real place of hope in the real sense.
i went to the clinton library finally just recently. he got the secret service limousine
ps. i read somewhere that the clinton’s have a private residence in the library for when they come to visit
Also FYI: in the Nixon lobby/ gift shop 2016 : Obamas America is playing… Which I find a little funny.
Do they sell any recording devices in that gift shop?
Oh my Jay, you so funny. No recording devices. But Watergate is given the whole treatment and Mr. Nixon in not spared in his own library. A room is dedicated to it, with a timeline that seemed to pulls no punches. I was impressed by that. Whereas Reagan has an entire Air Force One you can walk thru… Nixon only got Marine One, the helicopter. But it was pretty cool…to know you are in a small space in which Kissinger probably belched. Also they remade a life size version of the East Room. Why I do not know. Today a couple was being married in it.
Jay,
They sell a tape recorder in the gift shop that erases 18 1/2 minutes of anything you record.
Uppity, if they can arrange a device that could erase my late twenties, I’d finance the damn thing.
That’s interesting because in 2008 the Nixon daughters split with Tricia & Ed Cox going for McCain and Julie & David Eisenhower going for Obama. I see that Susan Eisenhower, Ike’s daughter, has again endorsed Obama. I can’t imagine Ike and Mamie supporting a man that stands for everything he fought to stop in WWII. (As aside, a few months ago when doing some genealogy on Ancestry.com, I suddenly realized the peeps I was researching lived on the same street as DDE’s family when he was 4 years old. That’s when history comes to life.
_
I can’t remember – did one of the daughters get married in the East Room? I thought Tricia was married in the Rose Garden (I was little but got into all the wedding thing) but maybe Julie in East Room?
They carry those voice activated Sony’s that tend to stop for at least five minutes every now and then.. Which can be quite a convenience, come to think of it.
I predict it’ll be Romney by 301, or more. If he gets PA, then he’ll be well above that number.
John, it’s interesting you think R won’t get OH, but will get WI. Is it because of Ryan? Or were you influenced by trying to find a non-OH pathway to 270 for R?
On the popular vote, I predict Romney wins by 4-5 points.
I would give MI to Romney too. Gore may have lost TN back in 2000, but generally voters vote for their homeboyz
Just a footnote of interest. I had noticed Bloomberg said don’t need ya here to Obama… Then scandal re nj’s senator and sex. Odd that Christie was already trotting at o’s feet — wondered why. Wondered in print if story breaking re sex scandal wasn’t team o up to its dirty tricks again (not that scandal wasn’t true– but nobody digs or uses a scandal quite like zero’s gang)… Figured team o was shooting one across the bow for certain folks to get in line. And suddenly Bloomberg loves him some Obama. Coincidence or annoying political phenomenon?
It is always a pleasure, John! Is your map from transom? I just don’t see Iowa red–or NH. I know this won’t jive with those who make hating Obama seem like an Olympic sport, but here is my take: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#_ Obama 281 Romney 257
Kara, what is transom? Also, I just don’t know the final answer. I’m 2nd guessing all over the place. I wish I was cock sure. It’d be easier. Though I can easily see Iowa and NH going red.
In Virginia, I think Benghazi, in part, the cuts to military if sequestration goes through, in part, and Romney/Ryan campaign’s devotion to visiting the Blue Ridge (heavily red but usually ignored) just as much as the rest of the state (NOVA and Hampton Roads areas) will swing it to Romney.
As to tea party in VA, it is still quite a force here in the land of Jefferson. There is an active state tea party organization. Only questions I have is while it appears most support Mitt, how many are going to pull the lever for Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode (a VA native son who went from Dem to Rep to Ind during his time in US Congress) or write in Ron Paul?
Damn CBS for quietly releasing proof Obama didn’t intend “acts of terror” in that Rose Garden speech to refer to Benghazi.:
“KROFT: Mr. President, this morning you went out of your way to avoid the use of the word terrorism in connection with the Libya Attack, do you believe that this was a terrorism attack?
OBAMA: Well it’s too early to tell exactly how this came about, what group was involved, but obviously it was an attack on Americans. And we are going to be working with the Libyan government to make sure that we bring these folks to justice, one way or the other.”
Read more: http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2012/11/05/what-president-obama-really-said-60-minutes-interview-about-benghazi/#ixzz2BMeerRWS
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qorwqnr0nq0orwnxn is most probable
BUT if polls are wrong and electorate is even or +1 or more for Republicans it could be this:
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qorwqnrxnq0nqwnxn
Many of the pollsters say they have shaped this electorate based not just on historic Dem turnout in 2008 but also re-shaped it to reflect 2010 census figures. Obama tightly controlled 2010 census and very possible that certain sectors have been padded to end up helping promote an Obama 2012 win. Or it could just be that they have severely overestimated passion amongst Dems and underestimated Reps’ drive to get rid of Obama.
Rasmussen now has it R+6.
Greyledge, none of your selections are showing up. Did you save them? Is anyone able to access Grey’s maps?
Do corporations go to proisn like people do?They can be sued. They can be disbanded (like Standard Oil). They can be banned (like alcohol during Prohibition). They can be confiscated (like any utility company ever). In short, yes.All I am saying is we need to avoid a double standard. A corporation cannot be held to the laws of people if it is not people. Our entire legal system is based on the idea that assemblies of people, whether it be a church, government, lobby group, family, etc., are entitled to the same rights as individuals. That’s why police need warrants to search company property. That’s why the government cannot compel religious worship. That’s why the military can be held accountable for crimes it commits.If corporations are not people, then they should not be afforded any of the rights of people. And if corporations are not people, then neither is the government, the military, the NAACP, the AARP, the Catholic Church, unions, etc etc etc. Therefore, they cannot be tried in a people’s court nor compelled to obey people’s rules.An assembly of people, folks who voluntarily decide to associate with one another, deserve, nay, are entitled to the rights of individuals. The First Amendment is quite clear on that matter.
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John, I was referring to this guy: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/03/obamas_failure_with_whites_independents_will_sink_him.html
His map is very similar to yours–but not exactly like yours…I did not look closely and went off memory last night!